Abstract
We investigate the dynamic and spatial determinants of the distribution of agricultural productivity around the world, with a focus on the effects of climate on production risk. We treat weather shocks as part of the error term and proceed evaluating the probability distribution of agricultural productivity conditional on climate. The adverse effects of higher temperature are found to be more severe in countries exhibiting low agricultural productivity. The negative codependence across countries means that spatial diversification tends to reduce food insecurity at the world level. This effect contributes to dimming the adverse effects of rising temperatures on world food insecurity.
