Impacts of Diagnosed Health Conditions on the Demands for Dairy Milk and Plant-Based Milk Alternatives over the Period 2011 to 2020

We examine how diagnosed lactose intolerance and overweight/obesity affect household purchases of dairy milk and plant-based milk alternatives (PBMA) from 2011 to 2020 using Nielsen Homescan and health survey data. Applying a Heckman two-step model, we find that households with lactose-intolerant members increase purchases of lactose-free milk and PBMA while reducing dairy milk. Households with overweight or obese members shift toward fat-free milk and away from whole milk and PBMA. These results highlight the importance of health conditions in shaping food demand and underscore implications for product diversification and targeted marketing in both the dairy and non-dairy sectors.