Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs

The informational content in live cattle and hog deferred futures prices is assessed using a direct test of incremental forecast ability for two- to twelve-month horizons. For 1976-2007, the results indicate that hog futures prices add incremental information at all horizons, but unique information in live cattle prices declines quickly beyond the eight-month horizon with no incremental information at the twelve-month horizon. The contrast in performance is likely attributable to differences in the quality of public information and the nature of the production process.
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Sanders, Dwight R.; Garcia, Philip; Manfredo, Mark R., Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 33, Issue 1, April 2008, Pages 87–98

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