Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector

This study presents a conceptual model for the analysis of avian influenza mitigation options within the small poultry farm sector (backyard flocks). The proposed model incorporates epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) methodology into an economic cost-minimization framework. The model is used to investigate the implications and interdependencies of mitigation options that influence inter-flock contact rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic flocks, and reduce the duration of symptomatic and asymptomatic periods. The results indicates that for shorter asymptomatic periods the efforts to control inter-flock contract rates should concentrate on symptomatic flocks, while for longer asymptomatic periods the control of inter-flock contacts should be focused on asymptomatic flocks. Efforts to reduce the length of asymptomatic and symptomatic periods and efforts to reduce inter-flock contact rates function as substitute strategies.
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Elbakidze, Levan, Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 33, Issue 2, August 2008, Pages 195-211

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