Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector
By: Elbakidze, Levan
Elbakidze, Levan, Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 33, Issue 2, August 2008, Pages 195-211
This study presents a conceptual model for the analysis of avian influenza mitigation options within the small poultry farm sector (backyard flocks). The proposed model incorporates epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) methodology into an economic cost-minimization framework. The model is used to investigate the implications and interdependencies of mitigation options that influence inter-flock contact rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic flocks, and reduce the duration of symptomatic and asymptomatic periods. The results indicates that for shorter asymptomatic periods the efforts to control inter-flock contract rates should concentrate on symptomatic flocks, while for longer asymptomatic periods the control of inter-flock contacts should be focused on asymptomatic flocks. Efforts to reduce the length of asymptomatic and symptomatic periods and efforts to reduce inter-flock contact rates function as substitute strategies.