ON THE ECONOMIC RATIONALITY OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS: THE CASE OF EXPECTATIONS IN THE U.S. PORK MARKET
By: Chavas, Jean-Paul
Chavas, Jean-Paul, ON THE ECONOMIC RATIONALITY OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS: THE CASE OF EXPECTATIONS IN THE U.S. PORK MARKET, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 24, Issue 1, July 1999, Pages 19-37
This study investigates the nature of price expectations in a competitive market. The approach is illustrated in an application to the U.S. pork market, which exhibits cyclical patterns and biological production lags. Pork price equations are estimated under different expectation regimes. The empirical results suggest the presence of heterogeneous price expectations among market participants. A large proportion of the market (73%) is found to be associated with backward-looking expectations, where future prices are anticipated on the basis of their observed historical patterns.