The Vanishing U. S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach

We re-examine the existence of cattle cycles based on U.S. beef cow inventories from 1979 to 2019. Our analysis begins with a basic first-order stochastic cycle model and finds a cattle cycle of 16.54 years, significantly longer than the presumed 10- to 12-year cycle. Typically cycles become longer before they disappear. Upon further investigation, we re-estimate the length of the cycle by applying a second-order stochastic cycle model which improves goodness of fit. Surprisingly, the cycle length is estimated to be infinitely long, implying the complete disappearance of the beef cow cycle.
Cite

Citation

Li, Yunhan; Shonkwiler, J. Scott, The Vanishing U. S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Volume 46, Issue 3, September 2021, Pages 479-489

Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on facebook