Wheat Export Restriction and Effects on India’s Domestic Prices: A Nonlinear ARDL Modeling Approach

This study examines the impact of India’s wheat export ban on the domestic wheat market amid the 2022 food price crisis. Study uses nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. Findings show an asymmetric transmission of changes in global prices to domestic prices in the long and short run under an open trade regime. The transmission elasticity for positive changes in world wheat prices is 53 percentage points higher than that of a negative change in world wheat prices. We found a symmetric relationship between the world and domestic wholesale wheat prices in the export-restricted regime. Export ban was not successful in curbing rise in wheat price increases.