Belasco, Eric J.

By: Belasco, Eric J.; Cheng, Yuanshan; Schroeder, Ted C.
While large feedlots commonly hedge corn and fed cattle prices, weather remains the largest uncontrollable component of production risk. This research examines the economic losses to cattle feeding associated with extreme weather. Profit losses are assessed using nonlinear regressions that relate weather outcomes, based on the Comprehensive Climate Index ( Mader, Johnson, and Gaughan , 2010 ), and their impact on production variables. Actuarially fair insurance premium rates are derived for an insurance product designed to mitigate the potential cost of extreme weather. Finally, we discuss additional issues associated with using weather-index insurance products and insuring feedlot cattle against adverse weather.
By: Belasco, Eric J.; Schroeder, Ted C.; Goodwin, Barry K.
This study evaluates quality, production, and price risk within the context of overall profit variability in fed cattle production. The approach used offers a flexible way to estimate a large system of equations with more than three jointly related censored outcomes. Trade-offs between quality and yield grade levels and production measures, such as average daily gain and feeding efficiency, are evaluated. Simulation procedures are used to assess the impact of quality risk on overall profit variability. Results make an important contribution to existing research by explaining why price signals through grid quality grade premiums may not generate intended producer responses.
By: Belasco, Eric J.
This study identifies the amount and origin of risk in cattle feedlot operations through the use of simulation techniques. Ex ante profit risks are evaluated under scenarios with varying levels of price protection through the use of forward pricing. An empirical probability density function is simulated to capture the mean and variability in prices and cattle production yields within a specified profit under difference assumptions regarding the relative importance of production risk and price risk in overall cattle feeding profits.