Bovay, John

January, 2023

By: Ferrier, Peyton M.; Zhen, Chen; Bovay, John
We estimate the cost of compliance with the US Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Produce Safety Rule by commodity and own- and cross-prices elasticities of demand for 18 fruits and 20 vegetables. These are used as inputs in an equilibrium displacement model that simulates the price and welfare effects of the rule. We find that consumer and farm prices increase by 0.55% and 1.69% for fruits and 0.15% and 0.59% for vegetables. Costs associated with implementation are estimated to reduce producer welfare by 0.63% for fruits and 0.51% for vegetables (as a share of revenue). If the rule's provisions were enacted unilaterally by growers of individual commodities, producer welfare losses would be 0.93% of total revenue for fruits and 0.31% for vegetables.

May, 2019

By: Bovay, John; Sumner, Daniel A.
This article explains incentives that individuals face when deciding whether to support legislation on farm-animal treatment. We analyze precinct- and town-level voting patterns in two successful referendum votes (California’s Prop 2 and Massachusetts’s Question 3) that restricted animal-housing practices. In both cases, support for the referendum was positively correlated with support for the Democratic candidate for president and negatively correlated with employment in agriculture; support for Question 3 increased with income. We use our regression results to predict how voters in other U.S. states would have voted had they faced similar referendums in 2008 and 2016.

May, 2016

By: Bovay, John; Alston, Julian M.
Many U.S. states have been considering proposals to introduce mandatory labeling requirements for foods containing GMOs. This paper analyzes precinct-level voting patterns in the case of California’s Proposition 37, which was narrowly defeated in the November 2012 ballot. Those voting patterns can be predicted primarily by support for Democrats, their platforms, and President Obama. Projections using our estimated model imply that a majority of voters in only three of fifty states (Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont) plus the District of Columbia would have passed Proposition 37 had it been on their ballots in 2012.