Devadoss, Stephen

September, 2026

Impacts of Trade Restrictions on Global Cardamom Trade

By: Sunil, Stanishkar T.; Devadoss, Stephen
Cardamom is a high-value spice primarily produced in Guatemala and India. This study empirically quantifies the impact of Saudi Arabia’s import restriction on Indian cardamom using a spatial equilibrium model, incorporating imperfect competition and product differentiation between India and Guatemala in the world cardamom market. The study finds that the price of Indian cardamom in Saudi Arabia increases by 41% and causes an overall world net welfare loss of $20.5 million for Indian cardamom in the global market. However, Guatemala benefits from this policy by reallocating its cardamom trade to Saudi Arabia.
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September, 2026

Implications of Mass Deportation for US Vegetable Production

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Gautam, Umesh
We develop a theoretical model to analyze the impacts of deporting undocumented workers and implement it empirically for US vegetable production, which employs low-skilled domestic, guest, and undocumented workers, along with high-skilled workers, materials, and capital. The results show that removing 1,000 undocumented workers leads to a negligible increase in low-skilled domestic employment (59 workers) and an annual wage increase of $57 per worker, indicating very limited but positive labor-market adjustment. In contrast, reduced labor availability lowers vegetable output by $35.07 million and reduces returns to complementary inputs. Moreover, removing half of the undocumented workforce reduces vegetable output by $2.55 billion.
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May, 2026

Effects of Mass Deportation of Undocumented Workers on the US Agrifood Sector and Economy

By: Aguiar, Angel; Devadoss, Stephen
Undocumented workers are an important part of the workforce in many sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly in the agrifood sector. The Trump administration is deporting undocumented workers.This study quantifies the impacts of a mass deportation policy on the U.S. economy and on key sectors using a multi-regional general equilibrium model that includes an undocumented workforce and the movement of migrants across countries. Deportation of 30% of the undocumented workforce will reduce economic activities in all industries (more so in agriculture, food processing, leisure, and construction) and lower the U.S. GDP by $128.56 billion. Furthermore, labor shortfall due to deportation will increase cost of production and raise food prices.
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January, 2026

Impacts of Deportation of Undocumented Workers on the Broiler Supply Chain

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Luckstead, Jeff
This study explores the impacts of deportation of the undocumented workers on various segments of the poultry supply chain using a model comprising domestic workers and undocumented workers. The results show that the deportation of 20% of undocumented workers in the poultry supply chain increases the wage rates by 7.82% which raises the cost of production and chicken product prices. Lack of labor availability due to this deportation policy causes production to decline in every segment of the poultry supply chain. Poultry producersÕ welfare declines by $63.85 million. Price inflation for chicken products occurs, ranging from 1.41% for feet to 2.94% for ready-to-eat products. Domestic consumption of chicken products falls, ranging from 0.73% for whole chickens to 2.11% for ready-to-eat products. US consumers’ surplus declines by $1.94 billion.
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December, 2025

Theoretical and Empirical Developments, and Future Issues in Agricultural Trade

By: Devadoss, Stephen
Agricultural trade has been steadily increasing since the 1960s. Consequently, agricultural trade has become an important field in agricultural economics since the 1970s. This special issue article presents an overview of key trade theories, empirical trade models, the current status of multilateral trade negotiations, major disputes, and key forces that can shape future commodity trade. Agriculture was brought into global trade negotiations under the Uruguay Round; however, the Doha Round negotiations are beset with disagreements among WTO member countries. Further, with Trump’s unilateral tariff policies, global trade negotiations are under siege, disrupting trade and potentially slowing economic growth worldwide.
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May, 2025

Toward Rice Production Self-Sufficiency in Bangladesh: The Role of Plot Attributes, Farmer Characteristics, and Technology

By: Hasan, Mohammad R.; Paudel, Krishna P.; Regmi, Madhav; Bampasidou, Maria; Bhandari, Humnath; Devadoss, Stephen
We examine the interdependence of high-yielding (HY) variety adoption and farm and farmer characteristics to achieve almost self-sufficiency in rice production in Bangladesh. We use data collected by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Bangladesh, to estimate yield differentials, return differentials, and risk. We find that HY rice varieties contributed 61.34%, plot-specific attributes contributed 3.08%, and farmer-specific characteristics contributed 35.58% toward rice productivity. Additionally, adopting HY varieties resulted in a base return increase of about 154.03%. Plot-specific attributes had larger effects on the return model than on the differential yield model, while farmer-specific characteristics adversely impacted HY return gains.
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May, 2025

Impacts of Mexico’s Proposed Ban of Genetically Modified Corn Imports on Global Markets

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Luckstead, Jeff
This study analyzes the effects of the proposed Mexican import ban of GM corn on Mexican, US, and global corn markets. This import ban would have caused considerable trade reallocations. Mexico would have had to import from France, Colombia, and Indonesia to fill the void left by lost imports from the United States. In turn, the United States would have had to divert its lost export sales in Mexico to Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and itself. Because of these trade reallocations, Mexico would have imported from more expensive sources. The United States would have exported to distant countries. Welfare would have decreased in many countries, with Mexico incurring large losses.
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September, 2024

Optimal Timing of Removal and Planting of Perennial Crops in Anticipation of a New Cultivar

By: Luckstead, Jeff; Devadoss, Stephen
We develop a perennial crop vintage-investment decision model that incorporates the dynamics of growers’ endogenous removal and planting decisions with uncertainty regarding the future release date of a new variety. We apply the model to coconut cultivation to examine the effects of a new cultivar’s higher yield, lower input requirements, and lower discard rates on the removal and planting decisions for various vintages of existing trees and different announced release dates of new cultivars. Results show that if the new variety is highly (moderately) profitable, growers will alter their planting and removal decisions to plant the new variety sooner (later).
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May, 2024

Determinants of Policy Responses in the USÐChina Tit-for-Tat Trade War

By: Ridley, William; Devadoss, Stephen
We assess the economic and political factors that underpinned the scope and magnitude of tariffs and US subsidies during the US–China trade dispute. We develop a political-economy model of tariff retaliation and compensatory subsidization and econometrically quantify the determinants of trade and subsidy policies during the trade dispute. Our empirical findings confirm that political (electoral geography of targeted commodities) and economic (optimal tariff relationships, attributes of export supply and import demand, and trade balances) factors were key determinants of US policies. China’s tariff retaliation was consistent with higher protectionism for larger sectors with extensive state ownership.
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