Devadoss, Stephen

May, 2024

By: Ridley, William; Devadoss, Stephen
We assess the economic and political factors that underpinned the scope and magnitude of tariffs and US subsidies during the US--China trade dispute. We develop a political-economy model of tariff retaliation and compensatory subsidization and econometrically quantify the determinants of trade and subsidy policies during the trade dispute. Our empirical findings confirm that political (electoral geography of targeted commodities) and economic (optimal tariff relationships, attributes of export supply and import demand, and trade balances) factors were key determinants of US policies. China's tariff retaliation was consistent with higher protectionism for larger sectors with extensive state ownership.

September, 2022

By: Devadoss, Stephen ; Ugwuanyi, Blessing ; Ridley. William
While comparative advantage factors expand agricultural trade, trade and domestic policies and gravity factors can either promote or hinder commodity trade. We use a theoretical multicountry trade model to analyze how various factors impact agricultural trade. Following previous literature, we model cross-country productivity differences using a probabilistic distribution. We then empirically implement the theoretical model to quantify the effects of various determinants of agricultural trade. Production-inhibiting policies and tariffs hinder bilateral trade, while domestic institutional quality, support programs, and land endowments expand bilateral trade.

September, 2022

By: Hovhannisyan, Vardges ; Bastian, Chris ; Devadoss, Stephen
This study adopts a novel approach to assessing addiction to cigarettes, small and large cigars, e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and loose smoking tobacco by decomposing tobacco demand into supernumerary and precommitted quantities. Supernumerary tobacco consumption represents a demand component that varies with prices and smoker income, while precommitted consumption is immune to changes in economic circumstances and thus may be reflective of addiction. By empirically estimating the supernumerary and precommitted demand components, we shed light on the severity of tobacco addiction and smoker price and income responsiveness in the United States, which may prove vital in refining various tobacco control policies.

January, 2022

By: Sabala, Ethan ; Devadoss, Stephen
Using a theoretical and empirical spatial equilibrium model, we examine the effect of the Chinese 25% tariff on the world sorghum market under various market structures. The effects of the tariff are less pronounced under bilateral monopoly than under perfect competition. Specifically, the reallocations of trade caused by the tariff are lessened as the United States uses its market power to mitigate adverse effects. This reduces the tariff's impacts on prices, production, consumption, and welfare for most countries. However, the calibration revealed that the United States and China do not exert significant market power on the world sorghum market and that international sorghum trade is more accurately represented by perfect competition.

May, 2021

By: Luckstead, Jeff ; Devadoss, Stephen
We use a broiler supply-chain model to examine the impacts of COVID-19-induced labor shortages and income reduction throughout the sector. Results show that the labor shock has negative effects on production throughout the supply chain, causing meat shortages and the average retail price to rise by 11:11%. The income shock lowers both quantities and prices in the supply chain. The combined production effects of both shocks are generally more pronounced, as they reinforce each other. However, retail prices move in opposite directions, with labor shock increasing prices and income shock reducing prices, leading to a 5:44% net increase in the average retail price.

January, 2020

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Zhao, Xin; Luckstead, Jeff
We develop a four-sector (labor-intensive agriculture, capital-intensive agriculture, service & construction, and manufacturing) general-equilibrium model of North American countries to analyze the effects of tighter U.S. immigration policies. Results show that these policies erode the comparative advantage of U.S. labor-intensive agriculture, causing U.S. production and exports to fall and other countries to expand their exports to the United States. In Mexico, low-skilled labor demand in labor-intensive agriculture increases as production rises. The effectiveness of U.S. tighter immigration policies depends on the substitutability between U.S. domestic and undocumented workers. Immigration policies exacerbate the wedge between Mexican low-skilled wage rate and the undocumented wage rate, intensifying the underlying cause for unauthorized entry.

May, 2019

By: Luckstead, Jeff; Devadoss, Stephen
We investigate the impacts of Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) liberalizations of trade and investment barriers on processed food markets. Using a four-region monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous food-processing firms that incorporates domestically operating, exporting, and multinational enterprise (MNE) firms, we quantify the effects of tariff elimination, fixed trade cost reduction, and foreign direct investment (FDI) cost reduction under CETA on prices, domestic sales, bilateral trade flows, affiliate sales, productivity, number of firms, and aggregate output. Our results highlight that trade liberalization promotes bilateral exports but reduces foreign affiliate sales, and, in contrast, lower FDI costs expand MNE affiliate sales but curtail bilateral exports.

May, 2019

By: Sabala, Ethan; Devadoss, Stephen
China targeted U.S. soybeans, among other commodities, for its recent retaliatory tariff chiefly because of the sheer volume of its imports from the United States. We develop a theoretical and empirical spatial equilibrium trade model to analyze the effects of the 25% Chinese soybean tariff on the United States, China, and nine other major soybean trading regions. Both the United States and China incur welfare losses as a result of the tariff, but Brazil experiences a large net gain. The United States mitigates some of its losses by reallocating trade to other importers, but at a cost to smaller exporters such as Canada.

September, 2016

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Gibson, Mark J.; Luckstead, Jeff
We develop a model with farm-level heterogeneity in productivity and endogenous entry and exit decisions to analyze the effect of price supports and direct payments on the U.S. corn market. The analytical results show that, contrary to the existing literature, removal of direct payments augments productivity while removal of price supports does not impact productivity, and direct payments can lead to larger production distortions than price supports under certain conditions. The simulation results corroborate the theoretical findings in that if both policies are equal in magnitude, then direct payments result in larger price, output, and welfare distortions than price supports.