Ghosh, Madhusudan

In developing countries, certain specialty crops, highly consumed for their culture, often face increased vulnerability to price fluctuations along supply chains due to natural disasters and climate crises. Onions in India are a prime example. Leveraging monthly-level price data along the onion supply chain from March 2010 to April 2022, this study proposes a VAR-X model that explores the price dynamics among onion arrivals, retail and wholesale prices, alongside rainfall anomalies across four major cities in India. Our core finding reveals that rainfall anomalies have a significant yet contrasting effect on prices and arrivals along the onion supply chain.