Griffith, Andrew P.

January, 2023

By: Boyer, Christopher N.; Griffith, Andrew P.
We determine the impact the 2020 Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) subsidy rate structure has on the probability of LRP having a higher price than the actual cash price. Monthly logit models were estimated to determine these probabilities with the previous and new subsidy rate. The preferred coverage lengths and levels vary across months as does LRPÕs effectiveness in managing price risk. The new subsidy structure increases LRPÕs effectiveness as a risk management tool in some months. Results show the LRP contract that provides the best protection by sell month and the impact of the new subsidy rates.

January, 2022

By: Ren, Yongwang ; Lambert, Dayton M. ; Clark, Christopher D. ; Boyer, Christopher N. ; Griffith, Andrew P.
Cattle producers in the Fescue Belt predominantly rely on cool-season grass (CSG) pastures. Supplementing CSGs with warm-season grasses (WSG) can provide economic and environmental benefits. We elicit Tennessee cattle producer willingness-to-adopt WSG using data from a hypothetical choice experiment that offered a monetary incentive to establish WSG pasture. A novel double-hurdle regression with Student-t errors was estimated using a Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo procedure. About 66% of participants were willing to convert 14%-21% of their pasture acres to WSG depending on the incentive amount. A $95/acre incentive is estimated to convert 7,631 acres to WSG, costing $0.77 million.

January, 2020

By: Boyer, Christopher N.; Griffith, Andrew P.; DeLong, Karen L.
We determined how reproductive failure impacts the long-term profitability of beef cows in spring- and fall-calving herds. Simulation models were established to generate distributions of net present value, payback periods, and breakeven prices of calves when a dam fails to wean zero, one, or two calves over her life. Results indicate that giving a dam another calving opportunity after failing to wean a calf would likely result in her being unprofitable. A producer would be better off selling the open dam than giving her another chance to breed. This illustrates the value in selecting replacement heifers based on fertility.