Harri, Ardian

September, 2022

By: Park, Eunchun ; Harri, Ardian ; Coble, Keith H.
Crop yield densities are often estimated at the county level. However, county-level yield data providers often omit county records due to low participation or other reasons. The data omission can undermine insurance premiumsÕ credibility and thereby lead to restrictions on the provision of area insurance products in specific locations. To address this problem, we propose a novel Bayesian spatial interpolation method to estimate crop yield densities for counties with missing data. Empirical results indicate that our approach is consistently superior to the benchmark approaches. Importantly, our approach offers noticeable estimation accuracy even at a significant level of data omission.

September, 2020

By: Park, Eunchun ; Brorsen, B. Wade ; Harri, Ardian
Many crop insurance studies have pointed out that considering spatial yield similarity can help provide more precise premium rating. We use Bayesian Kriging for spatial smoothing to consider such similarities when estimating crop yield densities. This articleÕs innovation is that the spatial smoothing is based on climate space, which is composed of climatological measures. We compare the climate-space smoothing with a general physical space (longitudeÐlatitude space) smoothing. The test results are favorable to the proposed climate-smoothing method. Climate smoothing performs particularly well in states that have many missing counties and varied climate due to varying topography.

September, 2020

By: Harri, Ardian ; Maples, Joshua G. ; Riley, John Michael ; Tack, Jesse B.
Theory of the firm suggests that optimal production levels decrease as output price becomes random. Firms operating in industries with long production lags are also exposed to input price uncertainty. This paper provides a novel decision-theoretic model in the presence of both input and output price uncertainty and uses U.S. beef sector data to test theoretical propositions concerning firm behavior. Our findings confirm that, in a two-stage production, the introduction of input price uncertainty leads to increased use of the input and an increased level of output in stage one and a decreased level of output in stage two.

December, 2011

By: Ubilava, David; Barnett, Barry J.; Coble, Keith H.; Harri, Ardian
We investigate potential effects of the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments (SURE) program introduced in the 2008 Farm Bill. Results suggest little impact on optimal crop insurance purchase decisions, though the SURE program does seem to provide an incentive for mid-level insurance coverage. For producers in the price counter-cyclical payment (PCCP) program, SURE payments are actually higher (lower) when commodity prices are high (low). This is not the case for producers in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program.

April, 2009

By: Anderson, John D.; Harri, Ardian; Coble, Keith H.
Alternative techniques for representing dependencies among variables in multivariate simulation are discussed and compared in the context of rating a whole-farm insurance product. A procedure by lman and Conover (IC) that is common in actuarial applications is compared to a new technique detailed by Phoon, Quek, and Huang (PQHl. Results suggest that rates derived from the IC procedure may be inaccurate because the procedure produces biased estimates of correlation between simulated variables. This situation is improved with the PQH procedure.