Knight, Thomas O.

May, 2015

By: Rejesus, Roderick M.; Coble, Keith H.; Miller, Mary France; Boyles, Ryan; Goodwin, Barry K; Knight, Thomas O.
This article develops a procedure for weighting historical loss cost experience based on longer time-series weather information. Using a fractional logit model and out-of-sample competitions, weather variables are selected to construct an index that allows proper assessment of the relative probability of weather events that drive production losses and to construct proper “weather weights” that are used in averaging historical loss cost data. A variable-width binning approach with equal probabilities is determined as the best approach for classifying each year in the shorter historical loss cost data used for rating. When the weather-weighting approach described above is applied, we find that the weather-weighted average loss costs at the national level are different from the average loss costs without weather weighting for all crops examined.

April, 2005

By: Vergara, Oscar; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; Knight, Thomas O.; Patrick, George F.; Baquet, Alan E.
This paper examines the use of market consultants and market information systems by grain and cotton producers. A model of producer demand for marketing information and consultants is proposed that decomposes price received into exogenous and endogenous components. The analysis is based on a survey of over 1,600 producers. The results suggest that expenditures on market information systems and market consultants are not independent and, more specifically, expenditures on marketing consultants substitute for expenditures on market information systems.