Preckel, Paul V.

August, 2003

Analysis of Economically Optimal Nutrition and Marketing Strategies for Paylean® Usage in Hog Production

By: Li, Ning; Preckel, Paul V.; Foster, Kenneth A.; Schinckel, Allan P.
An approach to the development of the economically optimal dietary concentration of Paylean, duration of the Paylean feeding, and dietary lysine concentration for finishing hog production is presented. A simulation model describing daily growth of hogs under different Paylean and lysine concentration combinations was adapted for optimizing nutrition and marketing when feed is supplemented with Paylean. Net returns per pig space per day under four alternative payment schemes are maximized based on 10-year average price levels and production costs. Profitability of Paylean is investigated, and management strategies for swine production with Paylean are developed for two representative finishing operations.
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April, 2003

The Value of Bt Corn in Southwest Kansas: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

By: Hyde, Jeffrey; Martin, Marshall A.; Preckel, Paul V.; Buschman, Lawrent L.; Edwards, C. Richard; Sloderbeck, Phillip E.; Higgins, Randall A.
While most Corn Belt farmers consider planting Bt corn to control European corn borer, southwestern Kansas farmers must also take into account an array of other insect pests, including corn rootworm, spider mites, and southwestern corn borer. This research uses a decision analysis framework to estimate the expected economic value of Bt corn in southwest Kansas. Mean per acre Bt values ranged from $12.49 to $34.60, well above the technology fee assumed to be $14 per unit, or $5.25 per acre at a seeding rate of 30,000 seeds per acre. The minimum value over all scenarios was $8.69 per acre. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it was shown that European and southwestern corn borer infestation probabilities, expected corn price, and expected pest-free yields are important determinants of the value of Bt corn.
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December, 2000

CONTRACT INCENTIVES AND EXCESSIVE NITROGEN USE IN AGRICULTURE

By: Preckel, Paul V.; Shively, Gerald E.; Baker, Timothy G.; Chu, Mei-Chin; Burrell, Jessica Eide
This study examines incentives for input use under tournament contracts. We analyze implications of contract design for nitrate-based environmental externalities generated by agricultural producers. Outcomes are compared from contracts awarded by tournament to those from fixed-payment contracts. Our findings show contract insecurity can distort input use. The model developed in this analysis is applied to a region of the U.S. where tournament-based production is prevalent and groundwater contamination is a problem. We find contract insecurity increases nitrogen use by about 12%, resulting in a 17% increase in nitrate leaching. Implications for contract modification to reduce environmental externalities while maintaining contract incentives are discussed.
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December, 1998

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PHOSPHORUS – REDUCING TECHNOLOGIES IN PORK PRODUCTION

By: Boland, Michael A.; Preckel, Paul V.; Foster, Kenneth A.
Soil phosphorus levels have increased as pork production has become concentrated. Phosphorus-based manure management regulations for land application have been proposed by policy makers. The objective of this study is to determine benefits/costs of adopting two alternatives for reducing phosphorus: synthetic amino acids or phytase. An optimization model is constructed to determine optimal excreted nitrogen and phosphorus from alternative feed ingredients. Results are derived using different manure storage and application systems. While the two alternatives are not least-cost ingredients, they become profitable when producers are constrained by land. An important result is that the net cost of manure is negative.
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