Saghaian, Sayed

January, 2018

By: Saghaian, Sayed; Nemati, Mehdi; Walters, Cory; Chen, Bo
Linkages between agricultural commodity and energy prices have become more complex with increased ethanol production. The concern is whether the new corn–ethanol links lead to volatilityspillover transmission between food and energy prices. We investigate asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil, corn, and ethanol prices using a BEKK-multivariate-GARCH approach. Additionally, we use daily, weekly, and monthly futures prices to examine whether the use of different-frequency data leads to inconsistent results. The results support the existence of asymmetric volatility transmission between corn and ethanol prices. Furthermore, the volatilityspillover effects are different for the different-frequency prices, and positive and negative price changes generate inconsistent results.

September, 2016

By: Chen, Bo; Saghaian, Sayed
This paper investigates market integration and asymmetric price transmission in the world rice export markets. Using monthly rice prices from Thailand, Vietnam, and United States, we employ the Johansen test and estimate the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM). Our main findings are that export prices in the three countries are cointegrated, with Thailand and the United States the price leaders, and that the Vietnamese price adjusts faster to long-run equilibrium when it is above its equilibrium level with Thai and U.S. prices. These results suggest market integration and competition rather than collusion are prevalent in world rice markets. Policy implications are also briefly discussed.