Smith, Vincent H.

January, 2015

The Tangled Web of Agricultural Insurance: Evaluating the Impacts of Government Policy

By: Pearcy, Jason; Smith, Vincent H.
This paper examines how changes in major elements of the U.S. federal crop insurance program affect the structure of the agricultural insurance industry.We model interactions between farmers, insurance agents and insurance companies. Marginal changes in government policy (premium subsidy rate, A&O subsidy rate, and loading factor) affect the insurance premium rate, agent compensation rates, agent effort levels, and market demand for crop insurance. Farmers prefer a marginal increase in the premium subsidy rate, but the insurance companies’ most preferred policy is a marginal increase in the A&O subsidy rate. We also evaluate the consequences of changes in crop prices.
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August, 2009

Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustment in U.S. Wheat Markets

By: Goodwin, Barry K.; Smith, Vincent H.
Dynamic relationships among three classes of wheat are investigated using threshold VAR models that incorporate the effects of protein availability. Changes in the stock of protein are found to generate significant responses in the prices of hard red spring wheat and hard red winter wheat, but not soft red wheat. The responses to identical changes in protein stocks are larger when the magnitudes of deviations of protein stocks from normal levels are large. Shocks to the prices of individual classes of wheat result in complex responses in the prices of the other wheat classes. Notably, however, a shock to the price of hard red winter wheat appears to result in little or no response in the price of hard spring wheat, though importantly, the opposite is not true.
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August, 2003

An Ex Post Evaluation of the Conservation Reserve, Federal Crop Insurance, and Other Government Programs: Program Participation and Soil Erosion

By: Smith, Vincent H.; Goodwin, Barry K.
Recent research has questioned the extent to which government policies, including conservation and risk management programs, have influenced environmental indicators. The impacts of income-supporting and risk management programs on soil erosion are considered. An econometric model of the determinants of soil erosion, program participation, conservation effort, and input usage is estimated. While the Conservation Reserve Program has reduced erosion an average of 1.02 tons per acre from 1982 to 1992, approximately half of this reduction has been offset by increased erosion resulting from government programs other than federally subsidized crop insurance.
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April, 2003

Segregation of Grain Markets: Consequences for Price Behavior

By: McNew, Kevin; Smith, Vincent H.
The introduction of genetically modified grain and oilseed products at the farm level and resistance for these products by consumer groups have led to segmentation in grain markets. This study explores the implications for market price behavior for a segregated soybean market for genetically modified (GM) and non-GM varieties. A stochastic dynamic simulation model of production and storage is solved, and Monte Carlo simulation procedures are used to examine price behavior between GM and non-GM soybeans. The results suggest important differences in price behavior between GM and non-GM soybeans. The results obtained in the model simulations are compared with evidence from the Tokyo Grain Exchange, where non-GM and GM soybean futures contracts have traded simultaneously since May 2000. The evidence from the Tokyo Grain Exchange contracts is largely consistent with the results of the simulation model. Price correlations between the Tokyo Grain Exchange non-GM and GM soybean contracts tended to be similar in magnitude to those found in the simulations.
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