Author
Tonsor, Glynn T.
This article uses national, quarterly data to examine U.S. meat demand using the Rotterdam model. We investigate the effect of multiple information indices linking different health concerns with diet, changes in household dynamics, and meat recall information. Medical journal articles linking iron, zinc, and protein with health and diet increase beef and poultry demand, whereas articles dealing with fat, cholesterol, and diet concerns reduce beef demand. Increasing consumption of food away from home enhances pork and poultry demand while reducing beef demand. Combined, these results provide a more complete and current understanding of the impact of multiple information factors faced by U.S. consumers.
A choice experiment is used to evaluate how consumers in London, Frankfurt, and Paris value beef steaks with attributes such as: “hormone-free,” “GM-free,” farm-specific source verification, and domestic origin. The effect of various consumer characteristics on steak selection is also evaluated. Results suggest that European consumers are significantly heterogeneous in their preferences for beef steak attributes. French and German consumers have a higher willingness to pay to avoid genetically modified feed use than British consumers, while German and British consumers would pay more for growth hormone-free beef. French and German consumers are willing to pay for farm-specific source verification.
Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms based on futures and options contracts are contingent on their ability to accurately forecast basis. This research addresses three primary questions as they relate to basis forecasting accuracy: (a) What is the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar-date approach? (b) What is the optimal number of years to include in calculations when forecasting livestock basis using historical averages? and (c) What is the effect of incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based forecast? Results indicate that use of the time-to-expiration approach has little impact on forecast accuracy compared to using a simple calendar approach, but forecast accuracy is improved by incorporating at least a portion of current basis information into basis forecasts.