Vedenov, Dmitry V.

By: Fei, Chengcheng J.; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Stevens, Reid B.; Anderson, David P.
The paper analyzes the effectiveness of joint- versus single-commodity hedging for inputs and outputs of the cattle feeding cycle using the second-order lower partial moment (LPM2) as the risk measure. Joint hedging always results in higher hedging effectiveness than the single-commodity hedging, but the difference is often small. The difference in performance is found to be explained by the commodity price dependence measures (Kendall's _). Ranges of _ leading to substantial improvement in risk reduction due to joint hedging are identified. The joint hedging strategy is worth implementing when the observed price dependence measures fall within the identified ranges.
By: Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Epperson, James E.; Barnett, Barry J.
This article makes an initial attempt to design catastrophe (CAT) bond products for agriculture and examines the potential of these instruments as mechanisms for transferring agricultural risks from insurance companies to investors/speculators in the global capital market. The case of Georgia cotton is considered as a specific example. The CAT bond contracts are based on percentage deviations of realized state average yields relative to the long-run average. The contracts are priced using historical state-level cotton yield data. The principal finding of the study is that the proposed CAT bonds demonstrate potential as risk transfer mechanisms for crop insurance companies.
By: Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Duffield, James A.; Wetzstein, Michael E.
Dramatic increases in levels and volatility of gasoline prices observed in recent years may create market incentives for adoption of alternative fuels characterized by lower price volatility. This hypothesis is investigated by applying the real-options pricing approach to develop optimal thresholds for switching from conventional gasoline to alternative fuels such as ethanol blends. The main result of the paper is that given the historical price patterns of conventional gasoline and ethanol, switching to ethanol blends is an economically sound decision provided this does not decrease efficiency of the vehicle. Analysis of data subsamples during the periods of higher volatility of gasoline prices (Gulf War and War on Terrorism) provides even stronger support for this result.
By: Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Miranda, Mario J.; Dismukes, Robert; Glauber, Joseph W.
This paper examines how insurance companies participating in delivery of crop insurance would change patterns of portfolio allocation across reinsurance funds in reaction to the 2005 Standard Reinsurance Agreement. The returns of insurance companies under the SRA are calculated using a simulation model. An heuristic allocation rule is introduced in order to imitate portfolio allocation strategies of participating companies. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the bulk of changes in portfolio allocations are likely to be caused by the introduction of "retained net book quota share" reinsurance rather than adjustments in the cession limits and retention requirements for the Assigned Risk Fund.
By: Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Barnett, Barry J.
This study analyzes efficiency of weather derivatives as primary insurance instruments for six crop reporting districts that are among the largest producers of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the United States. Specific weather derivatives are constructed for each crop/district combination based on analysis of several econometric models. The performance of the designed weather derivatives is then analyzed both in- and out-of-sample. The primary findings suggest that the optimal structure of weather derivatives varies widely across crops and regions, as does the risk-reducing performance of the optimally designed weather derivatives. Further, optimal weather derivatives required rather complicated combinations of weather variables to achieve reasonable fits between weather and yield.