By: Elam, Emmett W.
This research examines cash forward contracting of fed cattle. For an individual feeder, a cash contract eliminates basis risk (as compared to a futures hedge). However, the disadvantage is that the contract price is estimated to be lower than the futures hedge price by $.28 - $.59/ cwt for steers and $.86 - $1.64.cwt for heifers. From the industry perspective, contracting appears to have a negative impact on cash prices. An increase of 1,000 head in U.S. monthly contract cattle shipments is associated with a $.003-$.009/cwt decrease in the U.S. average cash price. The negative impact of cash contracting varies by state.
By: Donaldson, David
This article investigates the properties, good and bad, of social evaluations based on four money measures of well-being or changes in well-being: compensating variations, money metrics, extended money metrics, and welfare ratios. Consistency of social rankings (transitivity, asymmetry of preference), the possibility of incorporating inequality aversions, independence of the choice of reference prices, and the ethics implicit in the evaluations are considered. In addition, these procedures are contrasted with utility aggregation using equivalence scales.
By: Amegbeto, Koffi N.; Featherstone, Allen M.
Six measures of returns are used to estimate the most "appropriate" market index for southeast Kansas farms. Results suggest that localized indices are more appropriate than state indices for use as the market index. The appropriate index was used to estimate systematic and nonsystematic risk and risk costs for farm planning. Estimated risks depend on the choice of market index, whereas risk costs depend on the index choice and the risk aversion are considered. More risk-averse specialized farmers are not completely compensated for risk.
By: Turvey, Calum G.; Baker, Timothy G.; Weersink, Alfons
This article examines farm operating risks and cash-rent determination through the use of the efficient set mathematics. The efficient set mathematics proves to be a pragmatic approach to characterizing operating risks, and the relationships between operating risks and cash-rent determination. Various separation theorems are used to postulate the relationship between operating risk and cash rents. Preliminary evidence appears to support the theoretical conclusion that opperating risk and cash-rent determination are related.
By: Villezca-Becerra, Pedro A.; Shumway, C. Richard
Aggregate dual models are specified to examine multiple-output production relationships in each of four major, geographically dispersed, agricultural states (California, Iowa, Texas, and Florida). Three locally-flexible functional forms (translog, generalized Leontief, and normalized quadratic) are employed to conduct analytic simplification tests, estimate systems of output supply and input demand equations consistent with nonrejected hypotheses, derive elasticities, and determine to what extent analytic simplification tests and policy-relevant results are sensitive to functional form and state. Important differences in empirical implications were found due both to functional form and geographic unit, but differences were greater for the latter.
By: Wahl, Thomas I.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Johnson, Stanley R.
The Japanese pork market is protected by a complex set of restrictions, including a variable levy and an import tariff. The combination of these policies distorts the quantity, price, and form of Japanese pork imports. An important issue relevant to the liberalization of the Japanese pork market is the accurate measurement of the price wedge between Japanese and world pork prices. The analysis indicates that the tariff equivalent of the price wedge over the 1986-88 period was 44%. If the tariff equivalent of the price wedge is reduced over a ten-year period, Japanese pork imports are projected to increase by over 39% initially and by over 215% compared to baseline projections by the year 2000. Producer welfare can be maintained by a deficiency payment scheme. A less costly alternative is an industry buffer scheme, which maintains the level of the pork industry for two years and then implements a declining deficiency payment scheme that limits the decrease in production levels to 5% per year.
By: Moore, Michael R.; Negri, Donald H.
Recipients of irrigation water from the Bureau of Reclamation (BuRec) face a future of water conservation. By formally modeling surface water as a fixed, allocatable input to a multioutput firm, this research captures the institutional constraints governing water allocation and , simultaneously, establishes a cohesive approach to analyzing the production effects of BuRec allocation policy. Econometric results show that BuRec-served irrigators' crop supply and land allocation decisions are generally inelastic with respect to the water constraint. Using the elasticities, a policy simulation of a 10% reduction in BuRec water allocation indicates that production response to reduced water supply would affect the national price of three of ten major crops produced by BuRec-served farms.
By: Holt, Matthew T.; Moschini, GianCarlo
The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for risk response in hog supply decisions, with the ARCH-M and GARCH-M models suggesting a small and negative risk effect. Estimates of the marginal risk premium also indicate moderate and variable departures from marginal cost pricing in sow farrowing supply decisions.
By: Yang, Seung-Ryong; Koo, Won W.; Wilson, William W.
This study examines three alternative models of correcting for heteroskedasticity in wheat yield: the time trend variance, the GARCH, and an econometric model that includes the potential sources of heteroskedasticity. Nonnested test results suggest that modeling the sources of heteroskedasticity is the preferred procedure. Including potential sources of heteroskedasticity as explanatory variables removed the heteroskedasticity in the sample wheat yields. The results also suggest that the GARCH specification is a promising model of correcting for heteroskedasticity when the sources cannot be identified. The time trend variance model alone may misspecify the true variance structure.
By: van Kooten, G. Cornelis; van Kooten, R.E.; Brown, G.L.
A method is suggested for modeling uncertainty when there is a lack of information concerning the effect of forest management decisions on tree growth. Dynamic programming is used to investigate the optimality of alternative management strategies. The model is illustrated with an empirical example for a boreal forest region of western Canada. Three tentative conclusions follow: (a) silvicultural strategies to reduce uncertainty or to increase stand growth may not be worth pursuing, at least in northern forests; (b) the discounted cost of ignoring uncertainty may be substantial if taken over the entire forest; and (c) given uncertain forest growth, flexible harvest policies are preferred to a fixed harvest age.
By: Menkhaus, Dale J.; Borden, George W.; Whipple, Glen D.; Hoffman, Elizabeth; Field, Ray A.
A laboratory experimental auction was used to determine factors influencing the relative value consumers place on alternative retail beef packaging. Results indicate information is very important for the successful introduction and marketing of the vacuum skin package. Physical appearance of the beef plays a major role in purchasing decisions by consumers, with fat and shape significantly decreasing the value of beef in the vacuum skin package relative to beef in the overwrapped styrofoam tray package. Experimental economics procedures, when combined with traditional marketing research techniques, can provide useful information for marketing decisions and economic analyses.
By: Davis, Robert M.; Skold, Melvin D.; Berry, James S.; Kemp, William P.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is responsible for controlling grasshopper populations on public rangelands. Under current guidelines, control of grasshoppers on rangeland should occur if grasshopper densities are at least eight per square yard. This article evaluates the concept of an economic threshold relative to the value of forage saved from destruction during a grasshopper outbreak. It is shown that financial justification for treating grasshopper outbreaks depends upon grasshopper density, rangeland productivity, climate factors, livestock cost and return relationships, and the efficacy of treatment options.
By: LeBlanc, Michael; Hrubovcak, James; Durst, Ron L.; Conway, Roger K.
The Tax Reform Act of 1986 significantly changed incentives for investing. This analysis specifically examines how changes in marginal tax rates, depreciation schedules, and the investment tax credit altered the cost of capital and net investment in agriculture. A stochastic coefficients econometric methodology is used to estimate an investment function which is then used to simulate the effects of tax reform. Estimates indicated that relative to prior law, the Tax Reform Act will reduce the capital stock of farm machinery and equipment by nearly $4 billion.
By: Taylor, Michael L.; Adams, Richard M.; Miller, Stanley F.
This article examines economic incentives and other mechanisms to offset non-point source pollution from agriculture. A biophysical simulator to estimate technical relationships is linked to linear programming models for representative farms in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. The models are then optimized for profit maximization under alternative non-point pollution control policies. The results indicate that site-specific resource conditions and production possibilities greatly influence policy effectiveness and the cost of achieving pollution abatement. Nevertheless, some abatement is possible on all farms for relatively little cost.