Volume 29, Issue 1, April 2004

April, 2004

Comparing Hedging Effectiveness: An Application of the Encompassing Principle

By: Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.
An empirical methodology is developed for statistically testing the hedging effectiveness among competing futures contracts. The presented methodology is based on the encompassing principle, widely used in the forecasting literature, and applied here to minimum variance hedging regressions. Intuitively, the test is based on an alternative futures contract's ability to reduce residual basis risk by offering either diversification or a smaller absolute level of basis risk than a preferred futures contract. The methodology is easily extended to cases involving multiple hedging instruments and general hedge ratio models. Empirical applications suggest that the encompassing methodology can provide information beyond traditional approaches of comparing hedging effectiveness.
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April, 2004

Activists and Corporate Behavior in Food Processing and Retailing: A Sequential Bargaining Game

By: Hudson, Darren; Lusk, Jayson L.
This study examines the strategic interaction between food companies and activists using a game theoretic model of sequential bargaining in the absence of complete information. In a rather confined set of circumstances, findings indicate it is always in the best interest of the food company to comply with activists' demands. More frequently, however, there will be cases where compliance is not optimal, depending on the size of the expected effect of protest, cost of defending against protest, and the cost of protest to the activist.
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April, 2004

A Methodology for Evaluating How Product Characteristics Impact Choice in Retail Settings with Many Zero Observations: An Application to Restaurant Wine Purchase

By: Durham, Catherine A.; Pardoe, Iain; Vega-H, Esteban
An approach is developed to examine the impact of product characteristics on choice using a quantity-dependent hedonic model with retail panel data. Since panel data for individual products from retail settings can include a large number of zero sales, a modification of the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model is proposed for estimation. Results for this model compare favorably to results for alternative hurdle and negative binomial models. An application of this methodology to restaurant wine sales produces useful results regarding sensory characteristics, price, and origin/varietal information.
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April, 2004

Wholesale-Retail Marketing Margin Behavior in the Beef and Pork Industries

By: Marsh, John M.; Brester, Gary W.
An econometric model is used to estimate real wholesale-retail marketing margins for beef and pork. From 1970 to 1998, these margins increased by 27% and 149%, while farm-wholesale margins declined. Wholesale-retail (WR) marketing margin increases have caused livestock producers to focus on the retail sector as a contributor to declining real livestock prices. Increases in WR margins may be related to increased demand and costs of value-added food products/services as well as increased market concentration in the retail grocery sector. Results indicate that retail factors, and to a lesser extent meat processing factors, significantly increased WR margins and decreased livestock prices.
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April, 2004

Stochastic Dominance in Wheat Variety Development and Release Strategies

By: Dahl, Bruce L.; Wilson, William W.; Nganje, William E.
Variety development and release decisions involve tradeoffs between yields and characteristics valued by end-users, as well as uncertainties about agronomic, quality, and economic variables. In this study, methods are developed to determine the value of varieties to growers and end-users including the effects of variability in economic, agronomic, and quality variables. The application is to hard red spring (HRS) wheat, a class of wheat for which these tradeoffs and risks are particularly apparent. Results indicate two experimental varieties provide improvements in grower and end-user value, relative to incumbents. Stochastic dominance techniques and statistical tests are applied to determine efficient sets and robustness of the results. A risk-adjusted portfolio model, which simultaneously incorporates correlations between grower and end-use characteristics, is also developed to compare the portfolio value of varieties.
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April, 2004

The Structure of Models: Understanding Theory Reduction and Testing with a Production Example

By: Davis, George C.
The language of economics is the language of models. Understanding the structure of this language offers many benefits. Unfortunately, the structure is ubiquitous in implementation but absent in documentation. This paper documents the structure of models in the context of the theory reduction and testing process. The structure is used to explain why there are several legitimate ways to deal with nonspherical errors in econometric models and why the recent work on stochastic preferences and technologies is a progressive step forward for the discipline. A production modeling exercise is presented to help illuminate the concepts.
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April, 2004

Labeling Policies in Food Markets: Private Incentives, Public Intervention, and Welfare Effects

By: Zago, Angelo M.; Pick, Daniel H.
This study considers the welfare impact of labeling policies of agricultural commodities with specific characteristics. Using a model of vertical differentiation, the effects on equilibrium and welfare levels are calculated. The introduction of the regulation and the emergence of two differentiated competitive markets leaves consumers and high-quality producers better off, while low-quality producers are worse off. With high costs and low quality differences, the total welfare impact of the regulation can be negative. Findings show that when high-quality producers can exercise market power, the regulation could be more easily accepted by producers, but it would have a negative effect on consumers.
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April, 2004

The Price Premium for Organic Babyfood: A Hedonic Analysis

By: Maguire, Kelly B.; Owens, Nicole N.; Simon, Nathalie B.
The price premium associated with organic babyfood is estimated by applying a hedonic model to price and characteristic data for babyfood products collected in two cities: Raleigh, North Carolina, and San Jose, California. The price per ounce of babyfood is modeled as a function of a number of babyfood and store characteristics. The estimated organic price premium is generally equal to 3 cents to 4 cents per ounce. To the extent this premium reflects consumer willingness to pay to reduce pesticide exposures, it could be used to infer values for reduced dietary exposures to pesticide residues for babies.
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April, 2004

Explaining Variations in the Price of Dairy Quota: Flow Returns, Liquidity, Quota Characteristics, and Policy Risk

By: Wilson, Norbert L.W.; Sumner, Daniel A.
An econometric model based on the net present value model is used to examine factors that drive the variation of California dairy quota values over a 29-year period. The results suggest the price of quota is based on expected returns, variations in quota owner liquidity, and the risk of policy default. The dominant influence on the variation of the quota price was the historical variation in monthly flow of net benefits from owning quota. This analysis confirms that the rate of return to quota rises in periods of policy uncertainty.
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April, 2004

Agricultural Precautionary Wealth

By: Jensen, Farrell E.; Pope, Rulon D.
Using panel data, the relationship between income uncertainty and the stock of wealth through precautionary saving is examined. Evidence from Kansas data is consistent with the precautionary saving motive in that farm households facing greater uncertainty in income maintain larger stocks of wealth in order to smooth consumption. These results are found by regressing net worth against measures of permanent income (life-cycle income), measures of uncertainty, and demographic variables.
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