2026

September, 2026

Dynamic Food Decision (In)Consistency: Evidence from the Field

By: Sivashankar, Pathmanathan; Huseynov, Samir
Consistent food decisions are crucial for the effectiveness of individual low-calorie diet plans and public health policy initiatives. Yet, there is limited knowledge about the consistency of food choices in dynamic decision-making contexts. We conduct an incentivized food choice experiment in a field setting. Around 77% of food decisions are dynamically consistent, and most inconsistencies occur in choice switches from high- to low-calorie meal options. Our results bear good news for policymakers, as food decisions are moderately consistent, and desired preference shifts can be sustained over time. However, shifting food preferences poses a significant challenge to health policies, as information and behavioral nudges do not influence food preferences and their consistency.
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May, 2026

Understanding the Externality of Wildlife Health: A Case of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in Hunting Lease Values

By: Adhikari, Ram Kumar; Poudyal, Neelam Chandra; Grala, Robert K.; Tanger, Shaun; Muller, Lisa; Hunt, Kevin; Henderson, James
The spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has threatened the future of the hunting economy in North America. A discrete choice experiment survey of deer hunters showed a progressively higher premium for sites with lower CWD rates, revealing the trade-off between the disease prevalence and other site attributes. While this study focuses on the case of CWD in white-tailed deer, the findings help explain how the externality from declining game health affects huntersÕ welfare and how it reflects in lease values.
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May, 2026

The Human Health Costs of Water Management and Scarcity: Land Fallowing and Valley Fever in the Southwestern US

By: Perez-Quesada, Gabriela; Hrozencik, R. Aaron
An evolving policy landscape is set to drastically alter agricultural land use throughout the southwestern U.S. More stringent groundwater management policies are already diminishing water allocations for agriculture, prompting significant increases in land fallowing. While fallowing supports water conservation objectives, it may also damage human health by creating soil conditions ideal for the growth and transmission of Valley Fever, a potentially severe respiratory disease contracted from inhaling soil spores. This paper empirically addresses the relationship between fallowing and Valley Fever, providing novel evidence of the potential negative spillovers and unintended consequences associated with water management policies.
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May, 2026

Promotion Policy Design for Climate-Adaptive Technology: Analysis Based on Discrete Choice Experiments

By: Fu, Yong; Li, Yuhang; Mao, Hui
This study investigates farmers’ preferences for policies promoting climate adaptation strategies. The results indicate that farmers prefer policies including technology subsidies, technical training, and agricultural insurance. Furthermore, the analysis reveals significant complementarity effects between technology subsidies and technical training, technology subsidies and agricultural insurance, as well as agricultural insurance and agricultural production trusteeship. Conversely, substitution effects are observed between technical training and agricultural production trusteeship, as well as technical training and agricultural insurance. Farmers exposed to higher disaster severity prefer policies emphasizing agricultural insurance, while those with heightened risk perception are less inclined towards policies involving agricultural production trusteeship.
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May, 2026

Nitrogen Response Modeling with a Multidegree Spline Plateau Approach

By: Zhang, Yuan; Brorsen, B. Wade; Duncan, W. Hence
Nitrogen response models are often estimated as plateau type models. Existing plateau models are nonlinear in the parameters. The model introduced here is a multi-degree spline plateau model, which is linear in parameters. The linearity allows using approximation methods so that estimating a spatially varying coefficient model with Bayesian Kriging could be a commercially feasible approach to guide precision nitrogen applications. With proper knot selection, the spline plateau model can fit as well as the linear and quadratic plateau models. The computational efficiency of the spline plateau model was demonstrated using R-INLA and it provided fast and accurate estimation.
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May, 2026

Assessing Demand Interrelationships for a Disaggregated Set of Dairy Milk Products and Plant-Based Milk Alternatives

By: Bakhtavoryan, Rafael; Capps Jr., Oral
An EASI model is adopted to investigate the demand structure for dairy and non-dairy milk types in the United States, using weekly time-series data from January 2017 to August 2023. The demands for almond, cashew, and oat plant-based milk alternatives (PBMA) and lactose-free and traditional white milk are elastic, but inelastic for coconut, rice, and soy PBMA and organic milk. Almond and oat are complements, while cashew and coconut are substitutes. Lactose-free milk, traditional white and organic milk are substitutes. CowÕs milk categories and each of the PBMA categories are substitutes. The respective dairy and non-dairy milk products are necessities.
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May, 2026

Effects of Mass Deportation of Undocumented Workers on the US Agrifood Sector and Economy

By: Aguiar, Angel; Devadoss, Stephen
Undocumented workers are an important part of the workforce in many sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly in the agrifood sector. The Trump administration is deporting undocumented workers.This study quantifies the impacts of a mass deportation policy on the U.S. economy and on key sectors using a multi-regional general equilibrium model that includes an undocumented workforce and the movement of migrants across countries. Deportation of 30% of the undocumented workforce will reduce economic activities in all industries (more so in agriculture, food processing, leisure, and construction) and lower the U.S. GDP by $128.56 billion. Furthermore, labor shortfall due to deportation will increase cost of production and raise food prices.
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May, 2026

Impacts of Diagnosed Health Conditions on the Demands for Dairy Milk and Plant-Based Milk Alternatives over the Period 2011 to 2020

By: Wang, Lingxiao; Capps Jr., Oral
We examine how diagnosed lactose intolerance and overweight/obesity affect household purchases of dairy milk and plant-based milk alternatives (PBMA) from 2011 to 2020 using Nielsen Homescan and health survey data. Applying a Heckman two-step model, we find that households with lactose-intolerant members increase purchases of lactose-free milk and PBMA while reducing dairy milk. Households with overweight or obese members shift toward fat-free milk and away from whole milk and PBMA. These results highlight the importance of health conditions in shaping food demand and underscore implications for product diversification and targeted marketing in both the dairy and non-dairy sectors.
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May, 2026

Foreign Acquisitions Impact on Output, Wages, and Employment in the United States Agrifood Industry

By: Richards, Hannah E.; Zhou, Xi; Yasar, Mahmut; Kandilov, Ivan T.; Rejesus, Roderick M.
This study evaluates the economic impacts of foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the United States agrifood sector from 2010Ð2019. We discover differential effects based on the type of country from which the acquiring company originates. M&As from developing countries negatively affect gross domestic product and employment, suggesting a strategy of acquiring capabilities and resources rather than improving productivity. We find that Chinese acquisitions are associated with higher wages and employment, though the effect on output is mixed. Conversely, M&As from developed countries are associated with decreased wages and employment, likely from implementing advanced technologies that reduce labor needs.
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