2026

January, 2026

Small Precautionary Response to Risk in Corn Seeding Rate Decisions

By: Zhao, Yue; Hennessy, David A.; Lindsey, Alexander J.
We find that farmers’ precautionary motives have small impact on optimal corn seeding rates, contrary to their significant influence on savings and asset decisions. Our conceptual model shows that precautionary motives increase seeding rates when higher seeding rates reduce yield risk and decrease them when higher seeding rates increase yield risk. Analysis of Ohio and Illinois field data reveals a U-shaped yield risk response to seeding rates. Simulations indicate a 0.2% seeding rate increase in Ohio and a 0.19% decrease in Illinois due to precautionary motives, while yield insurance reduces optimal seeding rates in both states by up to 2%.
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January, 2026

Impacts of Deportation of Undocumented Workers on the Broiler Supply Chain

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Luckstead, Jeff
This study explores the impacts of deportation of the undocumented workers on various segments of the poultry supply chain using a model comprising domestic workers and undocumented workers. The results show that the deportation of 20% of undocumented workers in the poultry supply chain increases the wage rates by 7.82% which raises the cost of production and chicken product prices. Lack of labor availability due to this deportation policy causes production to decline in every segment of the poultry supply chain. Poultry producersÕ welfare declines by $63.85 million. Price inflation for chicken products occurs, ranging from 1.41% for feet to 2.94% for ready-to-eat products. Domestic consumption of chicken products falls, ranging from 0.73% for whole chickens to 2.11% for ready-to-eat products. US consumers’ surplus declines by $1.94 billion.
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January, 2026

Global Agricultural Productivity: Insights from a Dynamic Gravity Model

By: Luckstead, Jeff
This study estimates an aggregate agricultural industry dynamic structural gravity model with capital accumulation to assess the relationship between capital accumulation and determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in agricultural trade flows. The Armington elasticity of substitution is 1.47. Institutional variables government investment, business regulations, legal enforcement of contracts, and communication technology are key drivers of global agricultural TFP. The capital stock transition parameter is 34.6%. Counterfactual analyses show that increasing all countries’ TFP and improving institutional quality in countries with low-quality institutions generally raise exports, imports, output, capital stock, and welfare.
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January, 2026

Price Dynamics and Weather Anomalies in Agricultural Supply Chains

By: Ghoshray, Atanu; Ghosh, Madhusudan; Lim, Sunghun
In developing countries, certain specialty crops, highly consumed for their culture, often face increased vulnerability to price fluctuations along supply chains due to natural disasters and climate crises. Onions in India are a prime example. Leveraging monthly-level price data along the onion supply chain from March 2010 to April 2022, this study proposes a VAR-X model that explores the price dynamics among onion arrivals, retail and wholesale prices, alongside rainfall anomalies across four major cities in India. Our core finding reveals that rainfall anomalies have a significant yet contrasting effect on prices and arrivals along the onion supply chain.
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