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September, 2026

By: Miljkovic, Dragan; Vatsa, Puneet
We employ dynamic time warping, a nonparametric approach to examine price discovery in three ethanol markets in the United States: Chicago, Omaha, and Stockton. Focusing on the leadÐlag relationships between ethanol spot prices and futures prices for ethanol, corn, and crude oil, we show that these associations varied significantly across regions and over time, reflecting the heterogeneity of market structures and the influence of both supply-side fundamentals and energy market volatility. Our approach allows us to identify quick reversals in price leadership across markets. The findings underscore the importance of tailoring policy and risk management strategies to regional market conditions.

September, 2026

By: Sunil, Stanishkar T.; Devadoss, Stephen
Cardamom is a high-value spice primarily produced in Guatemala and India. This study empirically quantifies the impact of Saudi Arabia’s import restriction on Indian cardamom using a spatial equilibrium model, incorporating imperfect competition and product differentiation between India and Guatemala in the world cardamom market. The study finds that the price of Indian cardamom in Saudi Arabia increases by 41% and causes an overall world net welfare loss of $20.5 million for Indian cardamom in the global market. However, Guatemala benefits from this policy by reallocating its cardamom trade to Saudi Arabia.

September, 2026

By: Atwood, Joseph; Brester, Gary W.; Shaik, Saleem
Agricultural producers have access to numerous subsidized federal crop insurance products. A debate exists as to whether these products are used primarily for income transfers through premium subsidies and high loss ratios rather than for risk management. We compare Risk Management Agency stated premium subsidies to realized premium subsidies to identify opportunities to reduce federal outlays. We find substantial acreage and crop insurance participation for certain crops even when income enhancement does not occur and verify the results using simulations. Substantial reductions in federal outlays can occur using cro- and region-specific reductions in realized subsidies while maintaining risk management opportunities.

September, 2026

By: Prakash, Divya; Nemati, Mehdi; Dinar, Ariel; MacKenzie, Scott; Struthers, Cory; Slaughter, Matthew S.
Drought-driven water scarcity challenges in agricultural sector are projected to intensify with climate change. This paper examines the extent to which drought influenced California farmers’ adoption of alternative irrigation technologies and their crop mix decisions. Using county-level data from California (2000Ð2020), we find that extreme and exceptional drought relative to no drought or abnormally dry conditions significantly increase the likelihood of adopting more efficient irrigation technologies across all crop categories. We also find that moderate and severe droughts are associated with a reduction in harvested forage crop acreage, with no statistically significant effects observed for other crop categories.

September, 2026

By: Ma, Hongyun; Ma, Wanglin
This study introduces a tripartite frameworktextemdash male dominance, joint decision-making, and female dominancetextemdash to examine how intrahousehold decision-making influences the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. Using a multinomial endogenous switching regression model and survey data from rice-farming households in China, we find that joint and female-dominant decision-making reduce overall CSA adoption by 8.3% and 28.8%, respectively, compared with male-dominant households. Joint decision-making decreases the adoption of improved rice varieties and straw return but increases the use of farmyard manure and biopesticides. Female dominance is associated with lower adoption of minimum tillage, improved rice varieties, farmyard manure, and straw return.

September, 2026

By: Lee, Sangwon; Sumner, Daniel A.
We exploit the variation in the rollout of refrigerated almond milk across US retail stores from 2008 through 2010 to estimate the causal effects on cowÕs milk and soymilk. Using monthly retail store scanner data, we find that introducing almond milk reduced retail quantities of soymilk (3.6%) and lactose-free cowÕs milk (3%), with smaller effects on organic (2%) and conventional cowÕs milk (1%). Effects are larger in stores that adopted earlier or reached higher almond milk shares. Our econometric estimates indicate significant displacement of per capita consumption of soymilk and lactose-free cowÕs milk but not conventional cowÕs milk.

September, 2026

By: Devadoss, Stephen; Gautam, Umesh
We develop a theoretical model to analyze the impacts of deporting undocumented workers and implement it empirically for US vegetable production, which employs low-skilled domestic, guest, and undocumented workers, along with high-skilled workers, materials, and capital. The results show that removing 1,000 undocumented workers leads to a negligible increase in low-skilled domestic employment (59 workers) and an annual wage increase of $57 per worker, indicating very limited but positive labor-market adjustment. In contrast, reduced labor availability lowers vegetable output by $35.07 million and reduces returns to complementary inputs. Moreover, removing half of the undocumented workforce reduces vegetable output by $2.55 billion.

September, 2026

By: Winfree, Jason; Atallah, Shady S.; Gallardo, Karina; Nefouti, Khashi Ghorbani Vagheei
This paper analyzes the effects of a reduction of stochastic, yet persistent, plant diseases on prices, quantities, profits, and consumer surplus. We differentiate between short-run, unanticipated changes and long-run, anticipated changes since firms can adapt to anticipated changes. A theoretical model illustrates the short-term impacts of a stochastic shock in the severity of the disease and the associated movement along the demand curve. The model also analyzes an expected, persistent change in disease incidence and the associated long-run impacts of firms’ response to a reduction in disease incidence. Using pear data, we estimate the short- and long-run effects of a reduction in fire blight. Given the estimated demand elasticity for pears, we find that, in the short run, consumers would benefit more than producers from a mitigation of fire blight ($5.23 million vs. $745,000 annually from a 1% increase in yield). Once producers adapt to the absence of fire blight, the imbalance would be even more skewed towards consumers ($5.57 million vs. $467,000).

September, 2026

By: Parajuli, Sanket; Maas, Alexander; Tejeda, Hernan A.
Plastic bag regulations aim to reduce plastic pollution, yet evidence on long-term behavioral responses remains limited beyond California. This study uses NielsenIQ retail scanner data (2010Ð2020) across 30 US counties to examine the generalizability and persistence of changes in consumer spending on unregulated plastic disposal bags. Using two-way fixed effects, Callaway and SantÕAnnaÕs staggered DID, and synthetic DID, we find that plastic bag regulations increase spending by 55%Ð68% for waste bags and 2%Ð11% for tall kitchen bags, while heavy-duty bags show no consistent change. Results hold under robustness checks that exclude California, include placebo treatments, and use alternative specifications.

September, 2026

By: Gonz‡lez-Ram’rez, Jimena; Meyer, Kevin; Liao, Kenneth A.
This paper applies a travel cost model combining revealed and stated preference data to estimate the recreational value of a disc golf course near New York City, where such facilities were limited at the time of the study. Using intercept survey data from Franklin D. Roosevelt and Heckscher State Parks, we estimate individual consumer surplus per trip with a fixed-effects Poisson regression. The survey collects travel costs and contingent behavior responses, capturing how trip frequency would change with reduced travel time. By combining revealed and stated preferences, we control for individual-specific factors influencing demand. Supplementary data from the UDisc scorekeeping app provides an estimate of total annual visits, allowing us to calculate aggregate consumer surplus. We estimate individual surplus at approximately $68 per trip and total annual surplus for the course at about $6 million. These results can inform policymakers considering the allocation of public land.

September, 2026

By: Sivashankar, Pathmanathan; Huseynov, Samir
Consistent food decisions are crucial for the effectiveness of individual low-calorie diet plans and public health policy initiatives. Yet, there is limited knowledge about the consistency of food choices in dynamic decision-making contexts. We conduct an incentivized food choice experiment in a field setting. Around 77% of food decisions are dynamically consistent, and most inconsistencies occur in choice switches from high- to low-calorie meal options. Our results bear good news for policymakers, as food decisions are moderately consistent, and desired preference shifts can be sustained over time. However, shifting food preferences poses a significant challenge to health policies, as information and behavioral nudges do not influence food preferences and their consistency.

May, 2026

By: Adhikari, Ram Kumar; Poudyal, Neelam Chandra; Grala, Robert K.; Tanger, Shaun; Muller, Lisa; Hunt, Kevin; Henderson, James
The spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has threatened the future of the hunting economy in North America. A discrete choice experiment survey of deer hunters showed a progressively higher premium for sites with lower CWD rates, revealing the trade-off between the disease prevalence and other site attributes. While this study focuses on the case of CWD in white-tailed deer, the findings help explain how the externality from declining game health affects huntersÕ welfare and how it reflects in lease values.

May, 2026

By: Perez-Quesada, Gabriela; Hrozencik, R. Aaron
An evolving policy landscape is set to drastically alter agricultural land use throughout the southwestern U.S. More stringent groundwater management policies are already diminishing water allocations for agriculture, prompting significant increases in land fallowing. While fallowing supports water conservation objectives, it may also damage human health by creating soil conditions ideal for the growth and transmission of Valley Fever, a potentially severe respiratory disease contracted from inhaling soil spores. This paper empirically addresses the relationship between fallowing and Valley Fever, providing novel evidence of the potential negative spillovers and unintended consequences associated with water management policies.

May, 2026

By: Fu, Yong; Li, Yuhang; Mao, Hui
This study investigates farmers’ preferences for policies promoting climate adaptation strategies. The results indicate that farmers prefer policies including technology subsidies, technical training, and agricultural insurance. Furthermore, the analysis reveals significant complementarity effects between technology subsidies and technical training, technology subsidies and agricultural insurance, as well as agricultural insurance and agricultural production trusteeship. Conversely, substitution effects are observed between technical training and agricultural production trusteeship, as well as technical training and agricultural insurance. Farmers exposed to higher disaster severity prefer policies emphasizing agricultural insurance, while those with heightened risk perception are less inclined towards policies involving agricultural production trusteeship.

May, 2026

By: Zhang, Yuan; Brorsen, B. Wade; Duncan, W. Hence
Nitrogen response models are often estimated as plateau type models. Existing plateau models are nonlinear in the parameters. The model introduced here is a multi-degree spline plateau model, which is linear in parameters. The linearity allows using approximation methods so that estimating a spatially varying coefficient model with Bayesian Kriging could be a commercially feasible approach to guide precision nitrogen applications. With proper knot selection, the spline plateau model can fit as well as the linear and quadratic plateau models. The computational efficiency of the spline plateau model was demonstrated using R-INLA and it provided fast and accurate estimation.

May, 2026

By: Bakhtavoryan, Rafael; Capps Jr., Oral
An EASI model is adopted to investigate the demand structure for dairy and non-dairy milk types in the United States, using weekly time-series data from January 2017 to August 2023. The demands for almond, cashew, and oat plant-based milk alternatives (PBMA) and lactose-free and traditional white milk are elastic, but inelastic for coconut, rice, and soy PBMA and organic milk. Almond and oat are complements, while cashew and coconut are substitutes. Lactose-free milk, traditional white and organic milk are substitutes. CowÕs milk categories and each of the PBMA categories are substitutes. The respective dairy and non-dairy milk products are necessities.

May, 2026

By: Aguiar, Angel; Devadoss, Stephen
Undocumented workers are an important part of the workforce in many sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly in the agrifood sector. The Trump administration is deporting undocumented workers.This study quantifies the impacts of a mass deportation policy on the U.S. economy and on key sectors using a multi-regional general equilibrium model that includes an undocumented workforce and the movement of migrants across countries. Deportation of 30% of the undocumented workforce will reduce economic activities in all industries (more so in agriculture, food processing, leisure, and construction) and lower the U.S. GDP by $128.56 billion. Furthermore, labor shortfall due to deportation will increase cost of production and raise food prices.

May, 2026

By: Wang, Lingxiao; Capps Jr., Oral
We examine how diagnosed lactose intolerance and overweight/obesity affect household purchases of dairy milk and plant-based milk alternatives (PBMA) from 2011 to 2020 using Nielsen Homescan and health survey data. Applying a Heckman two-step model, we find that households with lactose-intolerant members increase purchases of lactose-free milk and PBMA while reducing dairy milk. Households with overweight or obese members shift toward fat-free milk and away from whole milk and PBMA. These results highlight the importance of health conditions in shaping food demand and underscore implications for product diversification and targeted marketing in both the dairy and non-dairy sectors.

May, 2026

By: Richards, Hannah E.; Zhou, Xi; Yasar, Mahmut; Kandilov, Ivan T.; Rejesus, Roderick M.
This study evaluates the economic impacts of foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the United States agrifood sector from 2010Ð2019. We discover differential effects based on the type of country from which the acquiring company originates. M&As from developing countries negatively affect gross domestic product and employment, suggesting a strategy of acquiring capabilities and resources rather than improving productivity. We find that Chinese acquisitions are associated with higher wages and employment, though the effect on output is mixed. Conversely, M&As from developed countries are associated with decreased wages and employment, likely from implementing advanced technologies that reduce labor needs.