Published Online (Pre-Prints)

Advance articles are accepted but have not yet undergone the copyediting process in preparation for publication. Minor stylistic changes may occur during the publication preparation process.

By: Brian P. Mulenga, Kellie Curry Raper, and Derrell S. Peel
10/13/20
Existing studies on calf management practice adoption tend to treat practices individually and, by implication, ignore the possibility that some practices are more likely to be jointly adopted than others. This study applies market basket analysis, commonly used in retail marketing for prediction of consumer purchases, to examine bundling of calf management practices based on the likelihood of joint adoption using producer survey data. Results indicate that the base practices of horn management, deworming, and castration are the three most widely adopted practices and are more likely to be jointly adopted in varying combinations with other practices. Producers who adopt feed bunk training jointly with base practices are less likely to implement 45-day weaning, but those who do implement 45-day weaning are more likely to adopt feed bunk training. Based on conditional probabilities, respiratory vaccinations appear to be the last piece of the puzzle for completing the preconditioning bundle. Results indicate that likelihood of implant adoption is highest when all preconditioning practices have already been adopted. We discuss implications on extension programming and future studies concerned with understanding practice adoption decisions.
By: Wei Zhang
10/13/20
The welfare consequences of any climate program depend on preexisting market and regulatory distortions. This paper studies the impact of CaliforniaÕs climate policy on the dairy manufacturing industry with explicit modeling of major milk pricing policies. Numerical simulations indicate that climate policy leads to a diversion of farm milk from manufactured products to fluid products. The establishment of a Federal Milk Marketing Order in California reduces the distorting effect of milk pricing policies. As a consequence, consumers of fluid products would enjoy a bigger welfare gain from climate policy under the Federal Milk Marketing Order
By: Tong Wang, Zheng Xu, Deepthi Kolady, Jessica D. Ulrich-Schad, and David Clay
10/13/20
This paper examines farmersÕ perceptions of cover crop profitability and future adoption likelihood in climate transition zone of the Northern Great Plains. Using bivariate ordered logit models, we investigate factors that determine the perceived cover crop profitability and likelihood of future usage. Our results indicate that approximately 40% of long-term (10+ years) users perceived a profit increase of more than 5%. Additionally, future adoption decisions are positively affected by environment-oriented attitudes yet negatively affected by priorities on short-term profitability. More efforts can be directed towards educational programs that enhance understanding of the short- vs. long-term economic benefits of cover crops.
By: Courtney Bir, Christopher A. Wolf, and Nicole Olynk Widmar
10/13/20
This paper examines US pet owner demand for veterinary service payment plans. Results revealed a strong preference for discounts and promotions for veterinary pet care. Examining specific attributes for a wellness plan revealed that respondents clearly were willing to pay more for preferred pricing compared to discounts for multiple pets. Respondents were indifferent between payment plans that distributed costs across 12 months compared to 6 months. In absolute terms dog owners were willing to pay more than cat owners. However, when normalized by the mean prices for dog versus cat veterinary service pricing, there were no statistically significant differences.
By: Ryan Feuz, Kyle Feuz, and Myriah Johnson
10/13/20
Feedlot managers make difficult culling decisions using their best subjective judgement together with advice from animal health professionals. Using routinely collected operational feedlot data and five well-known classification methods, mortality predictive models are constructed to aid managers in making objective culling decisions. Simulation results suggest net return per head for calves having been treated at least once for any health incidence would increase on average by $14.01 if the best-performing model were used as a culling decision aid. The probability of a positive return is 60.9%. Using cost-sensitive learning, the average value may increase to $45.27 per head.
By: Bachir Kassas, Marco A. Palma, and Charles R. Hall
10/13/20
The consistent appeals against mandatory checkoff programs stimulated a wave of research investigating voluntary contributions mechanisms (VCMs) as a potential alternative in the provision of generic advertising. Using a public goods experiment with heterogeneous income and marginal-per-capita-returns (MPCR), we examine the interaction between highand low-income individuals in VCMs, an understanding of which can help enhance the performance of voluntary generic advertising programs. While free-riders were present among both income types, the majority of low-income individuals were keen on stimulating higher contributions through cooperation. Conversely, high-income individuals tend to decrease their contributions in the presence of the low-income type.
By: Christopher C. Pudenz and Lee L. Schulz
10/13/20
Changing market fundamentals have made fed dairy cattle basis more variable. Our study estimates empirical models of fed dairy basis and utilizes tests that endogenously identify structural breaks following one large packerÕs decision to exit the fed dairy cattle market. We quantify the impact and find sale type, cattle weight, seasonality, ground beef prices, byproduct values, and fed cattle slaughter capacity utilization to be important basis determinants, although the impact of some of these factors has changed over time. Finally, we assess multi-year moving average basis forecast accuracy and draw implications for formulating basis expectations.
By: Sunil P. Dhoubhadel
5/21/20
This paper uses the staggered differenceÐinÐdifference model to assess the ex post impact of PA technology adoption on whole-farm profitability. The results indicate that PA technologies do not contribute as much to farm profitability when analyzed over a period. PA technologies may increase some operational efficiency, but farmers should not adopt PA, assuming that it will improve farm profitability. The positive contribution of the majority of PA technologies to farm profitability is not yet established.
By: Christopher N. Boyer, Kenny Burdine, Justin Rhinehart, and Charley Martinez
10/13/20
We simulated beef cattle producersÕ returns to shortening a 120-day calving season to a 45- and 60-day calving season by replacing late calving cows for two herd sizes. Dynamic simulation models were developed to consider production and price risk. We explored outcomes from annually replacing 10% or 20% of the late calving cows to reach the desired calving season length. The optimal scenario to shifting calving season length depends on herd size and whether the producer wants to maximize profits or certainty equivalent. The smaller herd benefited more from shortening calving season as compared to the large herd.
By: Chengcheng J. Fei, Dmitry V. Vedenov, Reid B. Stevens, and David P. Anderson
10/13/20
The paper analyzes the effectiveness of joint- vs. single-commodity hedging for inputs and outputs of the cattle feeding cycle using the second-order lower partial moment (LPM2) as the risk measure. Joint hedging always results in higher hedging effectiveness than the singlecommodity hedging, but the difference is often small. The difference in performance is found to be explained by the commodity price dependence measures (KendallÕs tau). Ranges of taus leading to substantial improvement in risk reduction due to joint hedging are identified. The joint hedging strategy is worth implementing when the observed price dependence measures falls within the identified ranges.
By: Tafesse W. Gezahegn, Steven Van Passel, Tekeste Berhanu, Marijke DÕHaese, and Miet Maertens
10/13/20
This paper analyzes how structural and institutional heterogeneity among irrigation cooperatives shapes the impact of membership on farmersÕ welfare in northern Ethiopia, using a novel heteroscedasticity-based identification strategy. More specifically, we estimate how cooperative characteristics influence membersÕ income and poverty level. We find that stricter water use regulations have income-enhancing and poverty-reducing effects for farmers. We also find that farmers benefit more from membership in larger, younger, and bottom-up cooperatives initiated through grassroots collective action. Our findings have implications for irrigation development in Ethiopia, and call for a better deliberation of organizational heterogeneity in cooperative impact studies.
By: Yunhan Li and J. Scott Shonkwiler
10/13/20
We re-examine the existence of cattle cycles based on U.S. beef cow inventories from 1979 to 2019. Our analysis begins with a basic first-order stochastic cycle model and finds a cattle cycle of 16.54 years, significantly longer than the presumed 10- to 12-year cycle. Typically cycles become longer before they disappear. Upon further investigation, we re-estimate the length of the cycle by applying a second-order stochastic cycle model which improves goodness-of-fit. Surprisingly, the cycle length is estimated to be infinitely long, implying the complete disappearance of the beef cow cycle.
By: Brian E. Mills, B. Wade Brorsen, and D. Brian Arnall
10/13/20
Past research on the profitability of precision phosphorus (P) application has used a small number of fields and a short time frame. Data on grid sampled fields provided by producers are used to define the distribution of phosphorus within fields. Expected yields and net present value (NPV) are simulated to compare variable and uniform rate P. The highest NPV used a variable rate that changed each year based on yield and predicted carryover. A variable rate using the same rates for four years was inferior to simply applying a little extra P at a uniform rate.
By: Simone Angioloni, Claire Jack, and Ronan McCarry
11/18/20
Agriculture is one of the most hazardous sectors in terms of occupational injuries resulting in more working days being lost. This paper employs a dataset of 7,500 Northern Irish farms over the period 2015-2019 to investigate what factors affect the number of working days lost in agriculture. Results indicate that public policies aimed to improve farm safety should focus on dairy farms, young workers, family members different from the main farmer, and dangerous working practices related to machineries and vehicles. Besides, results indicate that more than 18,000 workdays are lost every year in Northern Irish farms.
By: Anthony R. Delmond and Haseeb Ahmed
11/18/20
Over- or under-provision of antimicrobials under free-riding and resistance externalities can be economically important through their impacts on animal health, human health, and food security. This paper models antimicrobial use given disease dynamics with (i) free-riding incentives and (ii) antimicrobial resistance. Our results suggest a strong potential for overprovision of antimicrobials when ignoring resistance dynamics. Numerical simulation indicates an increase in the cost of disease management with increases in resistance levels. Policy implications are discussed in light of the animal health and disease-control subsidy programs of the developing world as well as unregulated sale of antimicrobials.
By: Kar H. Lim, Wuyang Hu, and Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr
11/18/20
Consumers may perceive grass-fed beef as superior in terms of food safety due to false impression and an unproven narrative that persists. Such misperception can distort the market, which may require policy intervention. Using a discrete choice experiment, results indicate that those who perceive higher food safety risks from consuming beef and those who hold the belief that grass-fed is safer than grain-fed have a stronger preference for grass-fed beef. This is an important finding as there is no scientific consensus that grass-fed is safer. This potential misperception warrants further scrutiny.
By: Syed Imran Ali Meerza, Konstantinos Giannakas, and Amalia Yiannaka
11/18/20
We analyze the optimal government response to food adulteration and mislabeling while accounting for heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer efficiency, endogeneity in producer quality choices, and asymmetries in food fraud detection. The analysis shows that when more efficient producers commit fraud, the optimal policy response is a strict monitoring and enforcement system. In contrast, when less efficient producers commit fraud, both increased certification costs and monitoring and enforcement can deter food fraud with their efficiency ranking determined by their relative costs. In addition, when the government desires the increase in the average product quality while combating food fraud, the optimal policy is strict monitoring and enforcement. Finally, we show that corruption of policy enforcers increases food fraud and that increasing monitoring and enforcement in the presence of corruption provides increased incentives for collusion between dishonest producers and corrupt policy enforcers.
By: Ashok K. Mishra, Joaquin Mayorga, and Anjani Kumar
11/18/20
The study uses a stochastic frontier approach corrected for self-selection to separate technology and managerial gaps between the treatment and control groups of smallholders in baby corn production in India. Secondly, the study assesses the impact of CF on output prices, profitability, and resource usageÑfertilizer and marketing expenses. Findings show that technical efficiency is consistently higher for contract farmers than independent farmers. Also, we find that significant technology and managerial gaps exist between contracted and independent growers. Results show that baby corn producers who are engaged in CF, after controlling for characteristics of both control and treatment groups, receive lower output prices and contract farmers have smaller marketing and fertilizer and expenses. However, results reveal that CF results in higher profitsÑmainly due to reduced marketing expenditures. Thus, CF intervention benefits the livelihood of smallholders, increases efficiency, and reduces environmental degradation without compromising yield.
By: Jungho Baek and Jiangqin Xu
11/18/20
Up until now, relatively little attention has been given to the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on global trade flows of forest products. Thus, the primary thrust of this article is to probe the asymmetry influences exchange rate fluctuations have on bilateral trade flows of various forest products between the U.S. and Canada. To this end, we use the method of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL). We discover that there is strong evidence that the ups and downs of exchange rates appear to have asymmetric impacts on U.S. exports and imports of forest products in the long-run. However, there is little evidence that the exchange rate asymmetry is present in the short-run.
By: A. Ford Ramsey, Jesse B. Tack, and Maria Balota
11/18/20
While the economic impacts of climate change on crop yields are well documented, less is known about the relationship between climate and crop quality. This discrepancy persists despite the economic importance of quality in determining agricultural revenues. Using a unique data set from the multi-state Peanut Variety and Quality Evaluation (PVQE) program, we quantify the economic impact of projected warming on revenue of Virginia-type peanuts for which grade and kernel size are important determinants of price.We calculate changes to revenue using Commodity Credit Corporation (C.C.C.) loan values as a proxy for market prices; C.C.C. peanut loan values depend on kernel size in a given batch of peanuts. In contrast to studies for other crops, the impacts of warmer temperatures on yield and quality are symmetric and negative, resulting in acutely depressed farm revenues. Our model predicts a roughly 11% decline in revenue under warming of 1 degree Celsius. Examining varietal improvement as an adaptation strategy, we find that gains in yield and quality from breeding could offset revenue losses under moderate warming up to 1 degree Celsius, but are unlikely to sustain farm revenues under more extreme changes in temperature.