Stochastic Dominance in Wheat Variety Development and Release Strategies

Variety development and release decisions involve tradeoffs between yields and characteristics valued by end-users, as well as uncertainties about agronomic, quality, and economic variables. In this study, methods are developed to determine the value of varieties to growers and end-users including the effects of variability in economic, agronomic, and quality variables. The application is to hard red spring (HRS) wheat, a class of wheat for which these tradeoffs and risks are particularly apparent. Results indicate two experimental varieties provide improvements in grower and end-user value, relative to incumbents. Stochastic dominance techniques and statistical tests are applied to determine efficient sets and robustness of the results. A risk-adjusted portfolio model, which simultaneously incorporates correlations between grower and end-use characteristics, is also developed to compare the portfolio value of varieties.