Author
Kastens, Terry L.
This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts.
This study estimates the price determinants of show quality quarter horses sold at auction. Several characteristics including genetic and physical traits, quality of pedigree, and performance record of the horse, as well as the horse’s offspring, were found to significantly impact selling price. Sale order positively affected price and appears to be driven by buyers rather than intentional ordering of the horses. A common practice at horse auctions is for the seller to reject the final bid offered and buy back the horse. Model-predicted prices for these buy-back horses indicate they are not undervalued by the final bids, based on their characteristics.