Implications of the Russian Invasion on the Logistical Competition for Corn Shipments from the United States and Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain flows from that region. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from a country with some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. This paper’s purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. Most important are the effects of the radical increase in shipping costs from Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies.