Wilson, William

By: Lakkakula, Prithviraj; Wilson, William
Forward pricing and allocation mechanisms for rail transportation serve critical functions for the grain-marketing system. We examine the effects of shipping costs on the origin and export basis using a panel simultaneous-equations model. Results indicate that the origin and export basis are determined simultaneously, with each one affected by the dynamic variability of shipping costs. On average, a $1 increase for the shipping costs decreases the origin basis by $0.19 and increases the export basis by $0.82/bu of soybeans. The interaction between shipping cost and exports on the export basis impacts both marketing and trading strategies in the grain-marketing system.
By: Wynn, Katherine; Spangenberg, German; Smith, Kevin; Wilson, William
This study specifies a framework to evaluate an investment strategy combining a market assessment with a valuation method using a stochastic binomial real option model. The market assessment uses multi-criteria analysis to determine which markets should be targeted for commercialization of a genetically modified trait in a target crop. The stochastic binomial real option model is developed to determine whether commercialization is financially viable. The framework was applied to canola being developed using gene technology to increase its drought tolerance. Our results showed that drought-tolerant canola would be more profitable than conventional varieties, but it would only be sufficiently profitable to pursue commercialization in targeted regions or countries.