Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain flows from that region. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from a country with some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. This paper’s purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. Most important are the effects of the radical increase in shipping costs from Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies.
Forward pricing and allocation mechanisms for rail transportation serve critical functions for the grain-marketing system. We examine the effects of shipping costs on the origin and export basis using a panel simultaneous-equations model. Results indicate that the origin and export basis are determined simultaneously, with each one affected by the dynamic variability of shipping costs. On average, a $1 increase for the shipping costs decreases the origin basis by $0.19 and increases the export basis by $0.82/bu of soybeans. The interaction between shipping cost and exports on the export basis impacts both marketing and trading strategies in the grain-marketing system.
This study specifies a framework to evaluate an investment strategy combining a market assessment with a valuation method using a stochastic binomial real option model. The market assessment uses multi-criteria analysis to determine which markets should be targeted for commercialization of a genetically modified trait in a target crop. The stochastic binomial real option model is developed to determine whether commercialization is financially viable. The framework was applied to canola being developed using gene technology to increase its drought tolerance. Our results showed that drought-tolerant canola would be more profitable than conventional varieties, but it would only be sufficiently profitable to pursue commercialization in targeted regions or countries.
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