Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
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The cattle and beef industry suffered through major declines in consumer demand during the 1980s and 1990s. Economists were instrumental in identifying the decline, but traditional times series meat demand models became less useful as heterogeneous consumer preferences evolved. New research methodologies were adopted that guided industry market innovations that resulted in numerous beef product offerings. Going forward, information will be of utmost importance to industry innovation and growth including use of artificial intelligence, real-time surveillance of consumer demand, necessary market information, and risk management. Economists will be integral in designing and assessing the viability of these developments.
Although several studies have estimated economic impacts of antimicrobials for growth promotion, little is known about economic impacts of the common animal health management strategy known as metaphylaxis: administering antimicrobials to groups of animals to prevent disease. This article develops a new framework to map animal disease to producer profitability and determine societal economic impacts surrounding metaphylactic use of antimicrobials in beef cattle production. Results indicate the direct net return value of metaphylaxis to the U.S. fed cattle industry is at least $532 million. Beef producer surplus losses of $1.8 billion would be associated with eliminating metaphylaxis.
Basis prediction errors for live cattle in the five major Mandatory Livestock Price Reporting areas are analyzed to determine how shifts in the live cattle market fundamentals and contemporaneous market conditions, including price momentum, impact ability to hedge. Results reveal that thinness of the negotiated cash market, weight of cattle marketed, and contemporaneous factors statistically impact basis prediction errors. Impacts vary across region. Volatility in cost of gain and delivery costs have greater effects on basis prediction error than do market trends.
While large feedlots commonly hedge corn and fed cattle prices, weather remains the largest uncontrollable component of production risk. This research examines the economic losses to cattle feeding associated with extreme weather. Profit losses are assessed using nonlinear regressions that relate weather outcomes, based on the Comprehensive Climate Index ( Mader, Johnson, and Gaughan , 2010 ), and their impact on production variables. Actuarially fair insurance premium rates are derived for an insurance product designed to mitigate the potential cost of extreme weather. Finally, we discuss additional issues associated with using weather-index insurance products and insuring feedlot cattle against adverse weather.
Value-added management practices for cow-calf producers have become prevalent as feeders have recognized the value of calves raised with certified health and weaning programs. Export markets requiring age and source verification or non-hormone treated cattle and advancement of markets for naturally raised cattle have also presented profit opportunities for cow-calf producers. This study estimates the value of value-added calf production and marketing programs. Weaned steer calves sold with certified health programs realized $7 to $10 per cwt premiums. Age- and sourceverified steers received $1 to $2 per cwt premiums exceeding added costs of about $0.67 per cwt in 2010 despite rapidly expanding supply.
The Food and Drug Administration recently approved the feeding of Zilmax(R) for cattle in the United States. This study determines direct net return benefits for early-adopting cattle feeders and beef packers. In addition, longer-run producer and consumer surplus measures are estimated as adoption impacts market prices and quantities. After markets adjust, cow-calf producers, cattle feeders, and consumers will gain from adopting the new technology.
Price differences among fed cattle prices in Canada and the United States (referred to here as fed cattle basis) are important for Canadian cattle feeders, but changing government regulations in Canada and the United States have made basis more variable. This article uses transaction data from Canadian feedlots to quantify fed cattle price differentials in light of new policy initiatives. Using transaction prices, we find that differing slaughter regulations, labeling laws, and policies affecting access to U.S. markets for Canadian cattle affect fed cattle basis.
This study evaluates quality, production, and price risk within the context of overall profit variability in fed cattle production. The approach used offers a flexible way to estimate a large system of equations with more than three jointly related censored outcomes. Trade-offs between quality and yield grade levels and production measures, such as average daily gain and feeding efficiency, are evaluated. Simulation procedures are used to assess the impact of quality risk on overall profit variability. Results make an important contribution to existing research by explaining why price signals through grid quality grade premiums may not generate intended producer responses.
This article uses national, quarterly data to examine U.S. meat demand using the Rotterdam model. We investigate the effect of multiple information indices linking different health concerns with diet, changes in household dynamics, and meat recall information. Medical journal articles linking iron, zinc, and protein with health and diet increase beef and poultry demand, whereas articles dealing with fat, cholesterol, and diet concerns reduce beef demand. Increasing consumption of food away from home enhances pork and poultry demand while reducing beef demand. Combined, these results provide a more complete and current understanding of the impact of multiple information factors faced by U.S. consumers.
Geographic fed cattle markets are important because cattle are bulky and perishable, and production and consumption areas are separated. These characteristics make cattle transportation costly and can contribute to segmented markets. This study uses USDA-AMS reported fed cattle market price data from five U.S. regional fed cattle markets to investigate the effects of mandatory price reporting on spatial market integration. Results indicate these markets have been, and remain, highly cointegrated after implementation of mandatory price reporting (MPR). Following introduction of mandatory price reporting, the five regional fed cattle markets have become more fully integrated (i.e., prices tend to move more closely one-for-one following introduction of MPR).
A choice experiment is used to evaluate how consumers in London, Frankfurt, and Paris value beef steaks with attributes such as: “hormone-free,” “GM-free,” farm-specific source verification, and domestic origin. The effect of various consumer characteristics on steak selection is also evaluated. Results suggest that European consumers are significantly heterogeneous in their preferences for beef steak attributes. French and German consumers have a higher willingness to pay to avoid genetically modified feed use than British consumers, while German and British consumers would pay more for growth hormone-free beef. French and German consumers are willing to pay for farm-specific source verification.
This study estimates wholesale demand for pork, chicken, and quality differentiated beef. We estimate meat retailer own- and cross-price demand elasticities for USDA Choice and Select boxed beef. Results indicate that meat retailers have more elastic demand for lower quality graded beef. Retail beef price has a strong positive relationship with Choice and Select boxed beef demand, and a strong negative relationship with wholesale pork and chicken demand. Seasonal analysis reveals demand for both beef quality grades becomes highly price inelastic during the summer months. The two beef quality grades are substitutes during the winter; however, Select beef is not a substitute for Choice beef in the spring and summer.
Increased use of noncash-price procurement methods has concerned cattlemen for the past several years. This research estimated impacts of captive supplies on transaction prices for fed cattle. Negative relationships were found between transaction prices and percentage deliveries from the inventory of forward contracted and marketing agreement cattle. However, impacts from the absolute size of the total captive supply inventory were not significant. Price differences were found among procurement methods with forward contract prices being much lower. On balance, captive supplies had small but often negative effects on fed cattle transaction prices.
This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features and accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accurate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate for crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either extension or USDA forecasts.
Extension marketing economists commit substantial resources to outlook and market analysis. Producers demand this information and use it to make production and marketing decisions. This study analyzes responses to a marketing survey of producers and extension marketing economists to discern similarities and differences in their perceptions regarding market timing, futures market efficiency, and risk management. Producer and extension perceptions are consistent with regard to several marketing issues, although they are not always consistent with published research results. Both producers and extension economists disagree that producers will receive a lower average price by forwarding contracting, and many do not believe hedging reduces risk and lowers expected return. Extension marketing economists rate risk reduction as a less important goal of marketing strategies than do producers.
The forecasting accuracy of five competing naïve and futures-based localized cash price forecasts is determined. The third-week’s price each month from 1987-96 is forecasted from several vantage points. Commodities examine include those relevant to Midwest producers: the major grains, slaughter steers, slaughter hogs, several classes of feeder cattle, cull cows, and sows. Relative forecasting accuracy across forecast method is compared using regression models of forecast error. The traditional forecast method deferred futures plus historical basis has the greatest accuracy- even for cull cows. Adding complexity to forecasts, such as including regression models to capture nonlinear bases or biases in futures markets, does not improve accuracy.
Bulls are an important investment for commercial beef cattle producers since, over time, bulls introduce most of the new genetic attributes into typical beef cow herds. Therefore, heritable bull traits determine bull prices. Bulls possess a large number of traits to consider in pricing. In recent years, new measures of both qualities have been introduced in the form of expected progeny differences (EPDs). This study estimates market values associated with specific bull attributes, recently introduced EPDs, and bull sale marketing efforts. Important bull price determinants include bull color, polled, conformation, muscling, disposition, age, birth weight, weaning weight, milk EPD, birth and weaning weight EPDs, sale location, order bull was sold, whether the bull had a picture in the sale catalog, and whether a percentage of semen rights were retained by the seller.
Three procedures are used to test Fama semistrong from efficiency of harvesttime price of Kansas City July wheat futures from 1947 through 1995. The three methods are (a) testing for jointly significant parameter estimates on nonfutures explanatory variables in econometric forecasting models, (b) testing the relative accuracy between model-based forecasts and using deferred futures prices as forecasts, and (c) testing for abnormal profits associated with simulated futures trading signaled by the forecasts. Kansas City July wheat futures are generally efficient. Furthermore, relative to the efficiency associated with forecasts constructed one to two months before harvest, the efficiency associated with the five- to six-month period before harvest has increased, especially since the early 1980s.
Cow-calf prices are determined by interaction of many factors. At a particular auction, cow-calf pair prices often had a range of 75% of the mean price. This variability suggests that producers need to be informed regarding cow-calf price determinants. This study uses auction data during 1993 to estimate price differentials associated with cow-calf pair characteristics using a hedonic model. Cow breed, age, health, conditions, horns, frame, and whether the cow had been bred back were significant price determinants. Calf weight, health, and frame had significant price impacts. Highest prices were paid for pens containing 9-December pairs of young Angus, dehorned, bred back, healthy cows with heavy healthy calves.
Cattle feeders appear irrational when they place cattle on feed when projected profit is negative. Long futures positions appear to offer superior returns to cattle feeding investment. Cattle feeder behavior suggests that they believe a downward bias in live cattle futures persists and that cattle feeders use different expectations than the live cattle futures market price when making placement decisions. This study examines feeder cattle placement determinants, comparing performance of expected hedgeable profit with past actual profit in explaining feeder cattle placements. Past actual profit is a more important placement determinant than expected profit based upon the live cattle futures market, even though hedgeable profit provides a superior forecast of future profit. In addition, potential deterrents to cattle feeders’ use of futures as a substitute for cattle ownership are discussed.
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