Nalley, Lawton Lanier

September, 2023

By: Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Durand-Morat, Alvaro
Increasing milling potential could provide more food for human consumption at current yields and input uses. We estimate the impact of increasing rice milling yields in Arkansas from 2004 to 2020 using actual yields by variety. The results suggest that a marginal 1% increase in the percentage of whole kernels could increase the number of rice rations by 0.89 million to 1.05 million annually, or up to 2.94 million and 3.5 million annually if the genetics of all Arkansas rice were at least at the standard of a popular purebred variety. Improving rice milling yields can have significant food security implications.

May, 2017

By: Tsiboe, Francis; Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Durand, Alvaro; Thoma, Greg; Shew, Aaron
The producer, consumer, and environmental impacts of a counterfactual of ShB-resistant rice production were calculated using data from U.S. county-level rice production in the Mid-South and simulated Sheath Blight (ShB) infection and yield-loss rates. Results indicate a $43 million increase in consumer surplus via ShB alleviation, with enough additional rice produced to feed 1.7 million people. A life cycle assessment (LCA) also shows that the counterfactual has lower environmental impacts than the status quo of ShB-prone rice production. These estimates provide important economic and environmental information to donors, policy makers, and breeding programs globally on the importance of increasing and maintaining genetic disease resistance.

August, 2010

By: Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Barkley, Andrew P.
This study applies portfolio theory to wheat varietal selection decisions in order to find risk-minimizing outcomes while holding historical yields constant. Potential correlation across wheat cultivar yields increases the complexity of cultivar selection decisions, with gains in one attribute (yield potential) often associated with losses in another (yield stability). Using location-specific empirical data, portfolio theory can provide producers in low-income countries a tool for developing a recommended portfolio of varieties given a desired risk-aversion level. Based on data from Mexico’s Yaqui Valley, results suggest that sowing a portfolio of wheat varieties could have lowered yield variance by 22% to 33% in Northwest Mexico.