Ramsey, A. Ford

By: Ramsey, A. Ford ; Tack, Jesse B. ; Balota, Maria
Using a unique data set from the multistate Peanut Variety and Quality Evaluation (PVQE) program, we quantify the economic impact of projected warming on revenue of Virginia-type peanuts, for which grade and kernel size are important determinants of price. In contrast to studies for other crops, the impacts of warmer temperatures on yield and quality are symmetric and negative, resulting in acutely depressed farm revenues. Our model predicts a roughly 11% decline in revenue under warming of 1textdegree C. Gains in yield and quality from breeding could offset revenue losses under moderate warming up to 1textdegree C but are unlikely to sustain farm revenues under more extreme changes in temperature.
By: Ramsey, A. Ford; Goodwin, Barry K.; Ghosh, Sujit K.
The theory of the natural hedge states that agricultural yields and prices are inversely related. Actuarial rules for U.S. crop revenue insurance assume that dependence between yield and price is constant across all counties within a state and that dependence can be adequately described by the Gaussian copula. We use nonlinear measures of association and a selection of bivariate copulas to empirically characterize spatially-varying dependence between prices and yields and examine premium rate sensitivity for all corn producing counties in the United States. A simulation analysis across copula types and parameter values exposes hypothetical impacts of actuarial changes.