Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
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Wheat, barely, flaxseed, and oilseed sunflower acreage respond to different economic variables. Wheat and barely acreage must be divided among program-complying, program-planted, and nonprogram-planted acreage because these categories respond to different variables and respond to own expected-revenue and price-risk variables in opposite ways. Flaxseed, sunflower, and nonprogram-planted acreage of wheat and barley have highly significant, positive responses to their own expected revenue and negative responses to their own-price risk. Flaxseed and sunflower acreage have been more responsive to their lagged values than to expected revenues for wheat.
Wheat acreage responses to expected wheat price and price risk are reversed for program and nonprogram-planted acreage in the northern plains, central plains, southern plains, and U.S. Expected wheat price has a strong negative effect on program-complying wheat acreage. Government support prices have a positive effect on program-complying and program-planted acreage. Price risk has a positive effect on program-complying wheat acreage and a negative effect on nonprogram-planted acreage. Estimated price elasticities are higher than in studies where risk was ignored.
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