Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
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Using a data-modified version of the relative-price-of-a-substitute method, we distinguish the consequences of the sharp decline in US automotive fuel demand from the consequences of nonethanol demand changes in the US corn market. Our results suggest that—due to the renewable fuel standard and ethanol-gas price linkages—the COVID-19 pandemic affected corn markets more than it affected other agricultural commodities. The onset of the pandemic reduced Illinois cash prices for corn by approximately 18%. The majority of this impact (approximately 16%) was driven by pandemic-induced reductions in ethanol demand. Ethanol-driven and total impacts were greater in locations farther from terminal markets.
Most previous research on post-harvest grain storage by farmers has assumed risk-neutral behavior and/or made restrictive assumptions about underlying price probability distributions. In this study, we solve the optimal on-farm storage problem for a risk-averse farmer under more general assumptions about underlying price distributions. The resulting model is applied to Michigan corn farmers and findings show, contrary to the “sell all or nothing” risk-neutral rule, risk-averse farmers will spread sales out over the storage season. As farmers become more risk averse, the optimal strategy is to sell more grain at harvest and spread sales over the storage season, even though this practice reduces expected return. This result is more consistent with observed farmer behavior than the “sell all or nothing” risk-neutral rule.
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