Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
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Understanding the role of risk in farmland leasing contract choices is important to assess the welfare consequences of farm policies or environmental changes that affect production risk. We use a unique dataset of landowners and tenants in Kansas to examine the role of risk in their farmland leasing contract choices. We find that greater production risk and more risk-averse landowners encourage fixed cash rent contracts. As many variables can potentially affect contract choices, we use a penalized regression to show that the inclusion of relationship variables leads to little change in the main results.
While nearly instantaneous commodity futures price information provides price forecasts for national markets, many market participants are interested in forecasts of local cash prices. Expected basis estimates are often used to convert futures prices into local price forecasts. This study considers basis patterns in the northern U.S. hard red spring and hard red winter wheat markets. Using data on basis values across 215 grain-handling facilities, we empirically test the forecasting capabilities of numerous basis models. Contrary to basis models developed for other U.S. regions, we show that recent futures prices, protein content, and harvest information are more important for accurate basis forecasts than historical basis averages. The preferred basis models are used to develop an automated web-based basis forecasting tool, available at http : //wheatbasis.montana.edu.
Farmers use forward contracts to eliminate adverse price and basis movements prior to harvest. Since late 2007, the local basis for Kansas wheat has changed dramatically relative to historic levels, causing greater risk exposure for elevators offering forward contracts. The result has been an increase in the cost of forward contracting paid by farmers from $0.086 per bushel to $0.327 per bushel. The factors driving this increase in costs are basis volatility, wheat futures harvest price, the information available in the market as harvest approaches, and realized returns to the elevator from forward contracting in previous years.
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