Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
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A water-crop simulation/mathematical programming model of irrigation water demand in northeastern Colorado is formulated to develop an original concept of derived demand for consumptive use of water. Conventional demand functions for water deliveries are also developed, and the effect of hypothetical price increases on both consumption and delivery are illustrated. Findings indicate that demand elasticity estimates are quite sensitive to model specification, and consumptive use demand tends to be significantly less price-responsive than delivery demand. Thus price incentives are likely to have only limited impacts on basin-wide water consumption and would not make much additional water available for emerging demands.
Irrigation water from a southeastern Colorado county has been sold to distant municipalities. The county’s junior water right delivered limited and uncertain water supplies which were used on relatively poor soils. The ability of water markets to allocate water to the highest-valued use was addressed by assessing the direct foregone benefits of the transfer using deterministic and discrete stochastic sequential (DSSP) programming models. Crop mix predicted by the DSSP followed observed regional patterns. The DSSP was thus used to derive regional water demand from which foregone value was estimated. Direct regional foregone agricultural benefits were relatively low-due to uncertain water supplies and unproductive soils-indicating the market selected a low-valued supply for transfer.
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