Hayes, Dermot J.

By: Lence, Sergio H.; Hayes, Dermot J.
Estimation risk occurs when parameters relevant for decision making are uncertain. Bayes' criterion is consistent with expected-utility maximization in the presence of estimation risk. This article examines optimal (Bayes') land allocations and land allocations obtained using the traditional plug-in approach and two alternative decision rules. Bayes' allocations are much better economically than the other allocations when there are few sample observations relative to activities. Calculation of certainty equivalent returns (CERs) with estimation risk is also discussed and illustrated. CERs are typically (and incorrectly) calculated with the plug-in approach. Plug-in CERs may be extremely misleading.
By: Buhr, Brian L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Shogren, Jason F.; Kliebenstein, James B.
A split-valuation method is developed and implemented to elicit the willingness to pay to consume- or avoid consuming- a product of ambiguous quality. The split-valuation method uses experimental auction markets to separate and value the positive and negative attributes of the ambiguous good. The results show that the method can be used to successfully value a good ambiguous quality. Our application reveals that for a sample of students at a midwestern land-grant institution, the average respondent is willing to pay a premium for meat produced with the use of a genetically engineered growth enhancer that has 30% to 60% fewer calories and is 10% to 20% leaner.
By: Wahl, Thomas I.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Johnson, Stanley R.
The Japanese pork market is protected by a complex set of restrictions, including a variable levy and an import tariff. The combination of these policies distorts the quantity, price, and form of Japanese pork imports. An important issue relevant to the liberalization of the Japanese pork market is the accurate measurement of the price wedge between Japanese and world pork prices. The analysis indicates that the tariff equivalent of the price wedge over the 1986-88 period was 44%. If the tariff equivalent of the price wedge is reduced over a ten-year period, Japanese pork imports are projected to increase by over 39% initially and by over 215% compared to baseline projections by the year 2000. Producer welfare can be maintained by a deficiency payment scheme. A less costly alternative is an industry buffer scheme, which maintains the level of the pork industry for two years and then implements a declining deficiency payment scheme that limits the decrease in production levels to 5% per year.