Lence, Sergio H.

By: Singerman, Ariel; Hart, Chad E.; Lence, Sergio H.
A framework is developed to examine organic crop insurance established by the Risk Management Agency (RMA). Given that the RMA links organic and conventional crop prices, the model is calibrated to reflect both markets to illustrate the impacts that pricing has on insurance coverage. Findings indicate that at the 75% coverage level, the RMA’s fixed-price factor implies an effective coverage ranging from 43% to 105% depending on the ratio of planting-time organic to conventional market prices. Results suggest the RMA’s program is likely to induce adverse selection because the nominal coverage level is likely to deviate substantially from the effective coverage.
By: Lence, Sergio H.
The most important minimum-variance hedging ration assumptions are (a) that production is deterministic and (b) that all of the agent's wealth is invested in the cash position. Stochastic production greatly reduces optimal hedge ratios. An alternative investment greatly reduces opportunity costs of not hedging by "diluting" the cash position. Stochastic production and/or alternative investments render the costs associated with hedging relatively more important, yielding almost negligible net benefits of hedging. Hence, hedging costs typically dismiss in hedging models for being seemingly negligible are important determinants of hedging behavior.
By: Lence, Sergio H.; Hayes, Dermot J.
Estimation risk occurs when parameters relevant for decision making are uncertain. Bayes' criterion is consistent with expected-utility maximization in the presence of estimation risk. This article examines optimal (Bayes') land allocations and land allocations obtained using the traditional plug-in approach and two alternative decision rules. Bayes' allocations are much better economically than the other allocations when there are few sample observations relative to activities. Calculation of certainty equivalent returns (CERs) with estimation risk is also discussed and illustrated. CERs are typically (and incorrectly) calculated with the plug-in approach. Plug-in CERs may be extremely misleading.