Year
2000
Capturing value-added activity is often promoted as a rural development strategy, but this is difficult for specific communities lacking the resources to support food manufacturing activity. This study analyzes the relationship between local attributes and food manufacturing plant investments in Corn Belt counties between 1987 and 1995. Plant investment locations tend to occur in counties with access to input and product markets, developed transportation networks, agglomeration economies, favorable fiscal policies, and a low wage environment. Supply-oriented firms locate near agricultural commodities and low-cost labor. Demand-oriented firms favor locations near product markets and transportation systems.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service funds three types of activities to promote agricultural exports: consumer promotion, technical assistance, and trade servicing. These “instruments” are analyzed using an adaptation of Muth’s model. Results indicate that consumer promotion always increases the derived demand for the U.S. agricultural commodity, but that under certain conditions technical assistance and trade servicing can have a perverse effect. Applying the model to cotton promotion in Japan, the results suggest that, owing to cotton’s modest share of retail value, the current emphasis on consumer promotion may be misplaced. Specifically, it appears that producer returns can be enhanced by emphasizing technical assistance projects that save on the marketing input.
New types of crop insurance have expanded the tools from which crop producers may choose to manage risk. Little is known regarding how these products interact with futures and options. This analysis examines optimal futures and put ratios in the presence of four alternative insurance coverages. An analytical model investigates the comparative statics of the relationship between hedging and insurance. Additional numerical analysis is conducted which incorporates futures price, basis, and yield variability. Yield insurance is found to have a positive effect on hedging levels. Revenue insurance tends to result in slightly lower hedging demand than would occur given the same level of yield insurance coverage.
Elasticities calculated from an econometric model of cost of gain (COG) for cattle in feedlots indicate that COG is considerably less responsive to corn price changes than breakeven budgets assume. This difference in elasticities can lead to substantial errors in COG estimates obtained from budgeting. Size of error will depend upon the initial corn price and the magnitude of corn price change. Given average corn price levels and month-to-month changes, the error in budget-based net revenue projections will be about $3/head.
According to the U.S. General Accounting Office, the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) is the largest state trading enterprise reporting to the World Trade Organization under article XVII requirements. This study estimates the market power exerted by the CWB in international barley markets. The analysis incorporates international price discrimination across markets for similar types of barley, the intertwining relationships between feed and malting barley markets, and producer behavior in the absence of the CWB. The CWB was able to capture an annual average of $72 million in additional revenue beyond the amount that would have been generated by purely competitive multiple sellers of Canadian barley during the period 1985-94.
In the United States, federal, state, and local governments are involved with the regulation of the safety of the food supply. Food safety regulations that set standards for food processors usually include inspection policies for monitoring performance and penalties for processors who do not comply with regulatory standards. In this analysis, we examine how penalties and inspection policies interact to influence processor behavior. We distinguish between internal penalties (imposed by the regulator) and external penalties (imposed by the market or by the court). Using a model of the processor’s expected annual cost, we find that under a given inspection policy internal penalties are only relevant under specific conditions. For cases in which internal and external penalties can be influenced, we use comparative statics to discover that internal penalties are more economically efficient for motivating processors than external penalties. These results imply that regulators should utilize internal penalties for noncompliance rather that rely on market or court-imposed penalties.
This study analyzes the impact of implementing carbon permit trading considered under the Kyoto Protocol, and the subsequent expected increase in energy and resource prices on U.S. crop production. The focus is on input substitution, net farm income, regional crop acreage, and crop prices. The analysis is carried out with a calibrated mathematical programming model which covers the major crops produced in the 48 contiguous states on a regional basis. The model accounts for both the variable inputs and the allocatable inputs of land and irrigation water, and it permits input substitution when farmers are faced with external shocks. The results suggest that when energy prices increase, the net cost to the crop-producing sector depends on the farmer’s ability to substitute crop inputs and the elasticity of demand for the crops. The impacts of carbon tax cost increases differ significantly among crops and regions. Overall, crop acreage and output decrease, total net revenues increase in most regions, and consumer surplus declines.
This study analyzes the risks of diversified tropical cropping systems that combine cocoa, plantain, and tree-crop components in different proportions versus traditional monocultures. A technique for modeling the expected values, variances, and covariances of correlated time-series variables that are autocorrelated and nonnormal (right or left skewed and kurtotic) is applied to simulate commodity prices. The importance of using simulated cumulative density functions (cdf’s) which reflect the most important characteristics of the stochastic behavior of prices for analyzing risk and returns of diversified agricultural systems is demonstrated. The analysis priovides evidence in favor of diversified cocoa-plantain-Cordia agroforestry system technologies versus the traditional monocultures.
This study examines incentives for input use under tournament contracts. We analyze implications of contract design for nitrate-based environmental externalities generated by agricultural producers. Outcomes are compared from contracts awarded by tournament to those from fixed-payment contracts. Our findings show contract insecurity can distort input use. The model developed in this analysis is applied to a region of the U.S. where tournament-based production is prevalent and groundwater contamination is a problem. We find contract insecurity increases nitrogen use by about 12%, resulting in a 17% increase in nitrate leaching. Implications for contract modification to reduce environmental externalities while maintaining contract incentives are discussed.